Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Virginiá]

Interesting study, but I have my doubts that it's entirely true. I recently did a detailed analysis of final results vs. the GCB and found that, in the context of House races, which party controls the House of Representatives itself on Election Day has a considerably stronger impact than who controls the White House.

Not to mention that "voters' feelings about the president" might already be somewhat baked into the Senate race.

Yea, tbh, I was just trying to be cute. That applies much more to low-level partisan races like legislative races, but less so to high-profile statewide races like a Senate seat, and to a lesser extent House of Reps. Although even for the House, it seems pretty apparent that GOP incumbents who spent the past few cycles or more holding on are now endangered simply because a semi-unpopular Democratic president was replaced by a semi-unpopular Republican president. And whereas Governors are sometimes immune, that doesn't count as much in open gubernatorial races, where Democrats are suddenly competitive or seemingly put away races they just couldn't cut it in under an unpopular Democratic president. Michigan, for example.

[Virginiá]

btw, just curious, but will anyone keep a running tally of the House popular vote as they report, or is this something we just have to wait until the dust has settled for?

[Virginiá]

@NOVA what does the OR legislature look like? Any gains for Democrats you think are likely?

[Virginiá]

[Virginiá]

Does anyone have statewide election results for Pinellas County (non-presidential)?

[Virginiá]

TBF, Colorado still has county-wide "vote centers" where people can vote in-person, register same day, drop off ballots, etc. I forget the exact proportion but I think it's something like one per every 20,000 - 30,000 people. I think there are also minimum #s of vote centers too for smaller counties.

In my opinion Colorado's 2013 reform bill was one of the best you can do (+AVR they did later). Send ballots to everyone but also let them vote/register in person.

[Virginiá]

Last Colorado Update


51% of ballots returned


As of Monday - 2018 v 2014. (2014 in parenthesis)

Democrats  554,809 (564,488)
Republicans  556,119 (693,983)
Independent 505,496 (491,591)

TOTAL 1,636,971 (2,215,258)

Really curious how Colorado will vote this cycle. I was telling someone else last night that the last time CO's House popular vote went for Democrats was in 2008. Every election after that has been a series of small-medium GOP pluralities, even in 2012. They also seem to give a lot of votes to Libertarians and other 3rd parties, so not sure who that hurts more. Suffice to say that CO would be a good place to implement RCV in the future.

[Virginiá]

bump