Will Trump be impeached?

[Virginiá]

If the House falls into Democratic hands, then yes.

I think that, at this point, the Democrats will impeach Trump and hope the Senate provides juicy tidbits that will help them win in 2020.  Simple as that.

The hypothetical size of the Democratic majority matters in regards to impeachment. If Democrats only have a slim majority, they might not be able to get the votes for it, as only a handful of Democrats would need to defect. That's not a tall order when a decent chunk of Democrats are cautioning restraint with this.

[Virginiá]

The bottom line is twofold:

In 1974, the Democratic and Republican parties were far more ideologically diverse.  I can't think of a single Democratic member of Congress today in the category of the guys that would be afraid to impeach Trump for fear of being too liberal.

Also:  In 1974, Republicans DID, progressively, begin to call for Nixon to resign, hoping to be spared from the impeachment vote and the Democrats making Nixon's trial the biggest thing since Nuremberg.  If Mueller is truly closing in on Trump, I guarantee that there will be a progressive call from GOP officeholders for Trump to resign.  That's actually a forgotten historical precedent.  The Democrats actually hedged on resignation; they really wanted to see Nixon go down in flames.  That wouldn't have been good for the country.  I wonder if Trump is bound and determined to give the Democrats their wish.

Right, but it's not all about ideology, Fuzzy. Let's not forget that Republicans already tried to impeach an opposition party president, although that was instance was notably different, both in partisanship and that Clinton was very popular at the time. Nonetheless, Democrats still seem to be thinking about that in regards to Trump. There seem to be enough Democrats in office who acknowledge that you need the public on your side as well an ironclad case, as that is the only remotely plausible way to make enough Senate Republicans fold.

I dunno, I just have to disagree with you here. It's possible that a newly-minted Democratic House majority is small, and there appear to be more enough hesitant Democrats who could tank an impeachment effort, at least until Mueller's investigation is done and presuming it gives a good reason to attempt to remove him. In this sense, I don't think you're giving Democrats enough credit.

[Virginiá]

How many Democrats would suffer political backlash for voting to impeach Trump?  Regardless of ideology, I can't think of many that would.

I don't know why you assume that if they wouldn't suffer a backlash for doing it, they are automatically going to do it. I think a better question is how many wouldn't suffer a political backlash for not voting to impeach? There is also a reason I keep adding the caveat of if the majority is a small one, because that means a small number of Democratic Reps can tank the vote despite the vast majority voting for it (which I think depends on the case against Trump), since Republicans will vote as a bloc. I think you're not appreciating how difficult it will be to get every single Democrat, or almost every single one, to vote for this, assuming Mueller's work isn't done yet, or it is and there doesn't appear to be a strong case to impeach.

Again, I just have to disagree. I think you're approaching this question all wrong.


(Also I strongly disagree with your assertion that there "There isn't a dime's worth of difference between "centrists" and "progressives" in the Democratic Party." It sounds like Republican talking points that wave off the differences of Dem. party factions in a way that only a conservative who doesn't understand those factions would do, altho I'm not saying that's your take exactly... but it definitely reminds me of that)