I like what GreatTailedGrackle wrote, but I am skeptical of the "potentially competitive" states. Virginia is just not going to be competitive, and Minnesota/Michigan always seem to be a target but haven't moved. I'd also have to know who is running first in New Hampshire, but again, not convinced.
Part of my skepticism is that I'm expecting a Trump performance that is notably worse than his first run, but I haven't settled on how much worse. He really started from a bad spot and he has done nothing to make it better and in fact is making it impossible to appeal to anyone outside his base. So even if one were to whip out the "but 2012" angle, you still have to contend with the fact that Obama lost almost half his winning margin. By that metric, Trump can't win. I'm not even trying to take this for granted either. It's just hard to see a path. And Trump losing by, say, 4 points or so, would be a very good thing for Democratic Senators running for reelection.
People here seem to be assuming that 2020 will be a great year for the Democrats just because 2018 is looking like it will be, just like how the GOP thought 1996/2012 would be slam dunks after 1994/2010.
GOP thought 2016 would be reasonable after 2014... they were right. Dems thought well of 2008 after 2006, they were right.
Yeah, exactly. We have no idea what the political environment will be like in 2020.
-2018 will be a wave year for Dems
-the economy will falter, how much is unknown
-Tariffs will continue
-Trump will likely be unpopular unless he can completely change his character
-The Dem will likely be mediocre to strong
-Dems will show up to the polls
Based on all of this info, its safe to say 2020 will be a Dem leaning environment, how much, I am uncertain, but baring any crazy events, this is it.
A few things:
1. Historically-speaking, it should
(for whatever reason(s)) before the end of 2020, but there is no guarantee. Expansions have been lasting longer over the past couple generations. And boy would it suck if Trump got booted out only for a Democrat to take office and immediately face a small-medium recession
. But the game of chicken with the tariffs may bring it upon us sooner than it would have otherwise, maybe?
2. If Obama could barely bring his approvals back even with a steady hand in governance and relatively scandal-free administration, then there is simply no way Trump can. I just don't buy it. I would argue that he destined to live out the remainder of his presidency with approvals where they are at now or lower, depending on how the economy goes. We have to keep in mind that once Democrats flip the House, they are going to turn over every rock that Republicans let be over these first 2 years, and there is likely an unusual amount of dirt there. At the very least that will probably keep them from going any higher, if not drive them to a lower average.
3. I think users may not be fully appreciating the degree to which Democrats show up in 2020 if Trump (1) remains unpopular and (2) continues enraging Democrats and basically everyone who isn't his hardcore base. This would be worse if Democrats nominate a decent candidate who can inspire people. Even with the ongoing movement of WWC voters to the GOP, who tend to turn out more in presidential years, Democrats still have the lion's share of infrequent voters who
do tend to show up during presidential years, so long as they have proper motivation. Even without a rock star candidate, half that equation is still filled and it'll bring these people to the polls. In the end, it won't take too much to push Trump over the edge, as he barely won to begin with.
