2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[Virginiá]

All the pundits have this as safe R. lol

All the high profile handicappers seem way too cautious. Either they would rather be labeled cautious than wrong, or they are just stupid. I'm leaning towards the latter for a nice, big handful of them.

[Virginiá]

Enough to make him sweat, at a minimum.

If it was a 5 pt win, it would probably not be unreasonable to start talking about a 5 - 2 delegation, even if just barely. Coffman is absolutely gone with a 5 point dem win margin.

[Virginiá]

I really hope we dont find out that a +7 popular vote win isnt enough to flip the house. That would be incredibly demoralizing.

I'm sure Republicans love having so much power, but they should care about how they get it too. This isn't a game, after all. There is a lot at stake in these elections, and constantly holding power despite getting far fewer votes is a really bad way to maintain faith in the country's elections. It's compounded by the fact that Republicans actively sow distrust among their own voters just so they can justify voter suppression laws.

[Virginiá]

Most of them have no problem with getting power through election interference from a foreign adversary, so is it really surprising that they'd have no problem with getting power through domestic shenaningans performed by themselves?

I mean, I'm not saying it's surprising that they have no problem with all of this, I'm just saying they should have a problem with it. America isn't guaranteed a stable democracy by any means, and everyone seems to take this for granted. Republicans have wormed their way into the presidency two times in a row now without winning even a plurality of the support of the people, and their response to this is "rules are rules." Combined with almost every other part of our elections being biased in favor of conservatives, that is a terrible path to go down.

OTOH, there is a not-entirely-unreasonable argument to make that a sizable faction of conservatives don't want a democracy to begin with. The constitution and its principles is not sacrosanct in this country, and some of the people who act the most like it is care the least about it when push comes to shove.

[Virginiá]

It would seem like the Trump strategy of just enthusing the Republican (Trump) base voters is really falling flat. 

It's would be a pretty good strategy if Trump's actual base was at least 50% of America instead of roughly ~35 - 40%. Makes sense for Trump though, as it puts his complete lack of inhibition in the light, as only focusing on the people who are practically in love with him means he doesn't have to change his behavior as part of the appeal to non-base voters.

[Virginiá]

Whew, it's going to be a good night if those are the final numbers. Democrats didn't even win close to D+8 in Wisconsin in 2006 and 2008 (surprisingly).

[Virginiá]

Two things to take away from Minnesota:

1. It's possible to get D+12 and not actually pick up MN-2 or MN-3. This was what happened in 2012, although Bachmann just barely scraped by, so I'd say it is likely that Democrats net up at least one seat with that margin.

2. Democrats could get a 7-1 delegation relatively easily as well, so long as their votes are more spread out. Given trends that accelerated in 2016, I'd like to think their votes are more spread out this time, instead of running up the score in currently-held seats.

[Virginiá]

Apparently GOP insiders are seeing bluecwave like numbers in their polling https://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/100-days-from-the-elections-dems-hold-upper-hand-in-fight-for-house-control

This article seemed like it was designed by scientists to get me as giddy as possible.

The only thing that annoys me is the immediate thought after reading that of how disadvantaged Democrats are in the states that even a large wave will likely only lead to divided state governments in maybe a dozen states, with a few trifectas in places that we should have consolidated power in a while ago. Not to mention that we'll probably still have Republican Governors in a number of blue states.

Getting to a place where Democrats are at least at parity with Republicans in the states or more on a regular basis, and not just after waves, is probably going to take decades, absent a massive reshuffling of the political landscape.

[Virginiá]

Didn't GEM's magic graph predict this dip in the polls?

[Virginiá]

Guys, can we all do each other a favor and try to keep page(s)-long arguments out of these poll/candidate megathreads? Even if someone could PM me before it turns into 2 pages of massive posts with 438192312 embedded quotes, that would be nice, because it's a pain in the ass to have to split pages of posts out, as the split tool isn't exactly the most user-friendly tool we have. This thread really isn't the place for multi-page arguments that quickly go off-topic, especially when it starts crowding out posts that actually belong here.

I'm saying this because this must be like the 3rd or 4th time in the past 5 days or so that I've had to do mass deletions or thread splits because no one was content to just walk away from an argument or at least move it to a new thread.

[Virginiá]

https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/15/politics/pelosi-doesnt-matter-in-midterms/index.html

Pelosi though.

This is what I've been saying for weeks now. Pelosi isn't electoral magic like Republicans think, yet they keep dragging her through the mud thinking it is. They seem to think that just because they wouldn't shut up about her for years during Obama-era midterm blowouts, that somehow it was an effective attack, because surely THAT was the reason they won, and not a recession recovery + unpopular-ish Democrat in the White House!

I don't think Pelosi deserves this kind of hate, but at the same time, since Republican politicians/strategists are too stupid and narrow minded to let go of an ineffective attack, I'd be lying if I said I wouldn't be a little happy when Pelosi retires, because it means Rs will finally start moving on to some other attack line that isn't incredibly stale.

[Virginiá]

muh Pelosi just needs to end but it is true that a lot of people who are warming up to the Democrats are in fact not fans of her.

Yea that is absolutely true, but since she ranks so low with people's lists of priorities, she doesn't end up factoring that much into their decision. Most of those people rating her as a big factor in their votes are probably Republicans or Republicans masquerading as indies who were never going to vote Democrat anyway, and would probably say any number of liberal boogeymen are a big factor in their votes (Clinton, Obama, etc). What they won't say is that the biggest factor and the only factor that matters in their vote is that the candidate must be a Republican (and a Trump supporter too maybe?). Nothing else matters to them.

[Virginiá]

What's the link to that poll^?

[Virginiá]

What's the link to that poll^?

https://navigatorresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Navigator-August-Tracker-Topline-F8.14.18.pdf

I think its this one.

thanks!

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1031559982540566528

George Holding trailing by 3 points in his own internal apparently.

I guess it's not completely unreasonable to believe that. NC-02 is an R+7 district and Holding won 56.71 - 43.29% in 2016. I'm not expecting this district to flip though.

[Virginiá]

Why are the Democrats doing a lot better in the House races lately but slightly worse in the Senate races? You'd think the Kavanaugh stuff would help them in the Senate.

It could just be the set of polls (and races polled). Plus, some could just be outliers, like the Wisconsin result, whose result was the definition of an outlier, given all the other polls showing her up bigly. It may give the illusion of tightening to some but in reality, nothing has changed. Also, Texas is the same, if not maybe narrowing a little bit. Florida is just a continuation of what we've already seen - a modest Scott lead. And so on. Other polls have diverged semi-regularly too, like Trump's approval rating and the GCB, which has had some puzzling trends such as the Democrats expanding their GCB lead while Trump's approvals tick up.

What I'm most curious to see is how the polls start moving in early-mid October, which is generally when the losing party sees the bottom drop out from under them in a wave election.

[Virginiá]

Sharice Davids in KS-03 is touting an internal poll that has her beating Yoder 46-43.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/democratic-poll-tight-race-in-kansas-3rd-district

Curious to see if Yoder will release an internal of his own. I know the caveats that come with internals, but there is a reason why Republicans are not releasing many internals of their own this cycle - they show equally bad if not worse numbers.

[Virginiá]

OK, even using House elections, the GOP (in raw votes) led by 1% throughout the nation in 2016, thus Indiana is about 13 points to the right of the nation. Thus, an  R+5 State GCB only translates to D+8 across the nation...not the double-digits everyone's been yapping about.

So... wait, are you agreeing that there will be a Democratic wave then? D+8 is absolutely a wave, and is likely to flip the House with seats to spare, not to mention the carnage at the state level. It's also a margin that many Atlas users generally agree on. Not "everyone" is "yapping" about double digit wins. I think there are a couple users off the top of my head who think we'll get there, but most of the time I just recall people (like myself) suggesting that low double digits, like D+10, seems possible in this environment, but not necessarily the most likely situation.

[Virginiá]

I was going based on Cook ratings, but yeah. If Democrats gain seats, it's probably going to be the most lopsided Senate class since the 1930s or maybe even since Reconstruction or maybe ever.

Eventually this Senate class is going to be up in a Republican wave year, and it is going to be a disaster. It could easily be a loss of 15 Senate seats or something crazy high like that.

Actually, if we look at the years this will be up, the next possible wave year would be.....
2018, 2024, 2030
2030
and by that point, many of the vulnerable senators would have retired. And this doesnt include the state trends that we could see. After 2024, which will likely be a neutral year, a possible R wave in 2030 would probably yield rather modest results.

Yea, depending on how you view the 2020s as unfolding, 2030 could actually go either way. For instance:

1. 2020 - Trump loses, Democrat wins in 2020 and 2024, Republican wins in 2028, 2030 is anywhere from a normal midterm to a Dem wave. Probably #4's result
2. 2020 - Trump loses, Democrat wins in 2020, 2024 and 2028 - realignment scenario, where 2030 could see a lot of R gains but also maybe not that many depending on what the landscape looks like then
3. 2020 - Trump wins, Democrat wins in 2024 and 2028 (no realignment?), 6 year itch = probably big losses
4. 2020 - Trump wins, Democrat wins in 2024, Republican wins in 2028, 2030 = probably Dem wave due to Millennials/gen z being a force of nature at that point

Not really going to entertain the idea of 12 years of a Republican White House from 2016 - 2028.

Right now, I would bet Democrats bring this Senate class in for a soft landing by the time the 2020s are over.

[Virginiá]

Okay, sure, that's a possibility. I just thought the idea of 2 one-termers in a row seemed unlikely, but if we don't get a recession before 2021, then whoever is in office between 2021 - 2015 will likely have to deal with one. We're already about to set a new historical record for longest expansion as it is.

[Virginiá]

They could repeal RTW with a ballot initiative / initiated amendment in 2020. It's not hard to imagine some group doing that, if for no other reason than to try and drive up turnout. Look at what they did initiatives for this year:

Minimum wage
Paid leave
Marijuana legalization
Redistricting reform
Voting rights reform

[Virginiá]

No they wouldn't. Voters can amend the state constitution without interaction or input from the legislature. It's how they are doing what they are doing with redistricting reform. At best the legislature *could* try and pass a similar bill before it goes on the ballot, which I think triggers the removal of that initiative (Rs are trying to do this for the min wage + paid leave initiatives, because they are initiated statutes, not amendments), but it doesn't apply for constitutional amendments.

Voters can do this all on their own if they want. And if Whitmer wins and/or Democrats flip the state House, then Republicans have no way to try and scuttle it short of mounting an opposition campaign to persuade voters.

[Virginiá]

And 19/27 current Republican legislators in the State Senate are term limited. Democrats are already seriously targeting around 10 GOP-held seats, and a big Whitmer victory could pull lots of Democrats through.

Just curious, but can the legislature in Michigan redraw districts mid-decade, or does the state constitution restrict it to once a year (aside from court orders)? In the off chance that Democrats flip everything, they could redraw the legislative lines to even their odds of holding on to the state House in 2020.

[Virginiá]

The GCB in Ohio is D+6, it was R+16 in 2016 and R+20 in 2014.

If Ohio is about 15 points to the right of the nation (the House vote was R+1 in 2016), this would mean a national GCB of  D+21. That doesn't seem right to me. Throw this poll in the trash for being too D-leaning.  

lol what

Ohio went for Democrats by 5 - 6 points in 2006 and 2008, and it was around R+4 or so in 2012. Republicans over-performed in 2010, 2014 and 2016 due to the nature of each election. The Midwest is swingy - it's a well-known fact and has been for a long time.

D+6 in Ohio is absolutely on point for a Democratic wave election.

[Virginiá]

New megathread was merged/created due to this one almost reaching capacity

New thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=302399