Rate KS-03

[Virginiá]

I mean, that level of carpetbagging isn't good, but if this cycle is truly a Democratic wave, he could still win regardless of that. That is generally a hallmark of a wave- it washes in a ton of candidates both strong and weak, as the voters are essentially rejecting Trump, not Yoder. The only issue is that if Welder does turn out to be a weak candidate, he'll probably get washed out sometime in the next ~3 cycles, depending on whether Trump loses and/or how well Democrats do downballot in 2020.

[Virginiá]

Ok, well, it's pretty clear there is some disagreement on the exact political penalties carpetbagging causes.

What is Welder's fundraising like?

[Virginiá]

The problem for Democrats is that even as badly as a Republican governor has messed up Kansas, and even as big of a drag Trump is on the GOP brand in elections held during his tenure, once Trump leaves, and once Kansas sees some turnover in political control and sane politicians mostly stabilize their finances, Republicans will continue performing decently there. Look at how fast Democrats surged after Trump won in 2016. Before that day, they couldn't seem to stop getting crushed in midterms.

Never underestimate the electorate's ability to snap back to their previous voting habits once the pressure is relieved a bit.