The median age according to census bureau numbers of this district compared to mine is a tad bit higher. 61% of voters here are 50+ years of age so I’m assuming that’s similar for AZ-8. You could compare this to PA-18 but there’s a big problem: this is an ancestrally Republican area while PA-18 was ancestrally Democrat. The older voters here are almost certainly staying Republican.
The GOP have been known to blow easy to win races so we’ll see. But this is gonna be even tougher than PA-18.
Fundamentally, the overall point of winning/losing this race is the same as PA-18 - it's all about feeding the narrative of a blue wave so as to drive fundraising, recruitment and spook Republicans into retiring. There is no actual effect on Congressional power here. None worth mentioning anyhow.
I think at this point, with some filing deadlines being passed and others coming up, retirements are going to be few and far between after April 24th
(if any?), and the wave narrative already has enough fuel, so I don't think it really matters what happens in this race. Or, at least so long as the Democrat over-performs a little.
Poll
