Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[Virginiá]

Please change the title to 1.3 before it pisses me off. Thanks in advance.

lmao

TG in addition to the 1.3 thing can you also add the old thread link to the main post  ?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=274553.0

[Virginiá]

I wonder what George W Bush's approval rating in Florida was in mid-late 2006

[Virginiá]

I wonder what George W Bush's approval rating in Florida was in mid-late 2006

Rasmussen had Bush at 41% Approve 59% Disapprove in Florida from
August to September 2006 when I'm sure Rasmussen wasn't as much of a joke as it is today. Here's the link:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/bush_administration/president_bush_approval_state_by_state

That's even worse than I was expecting. I'm just hoping that the eradication of split ticket voting and the unprecedented energy on the left is enough to make a dent in FL under circumstances that weren't enough 10+ years ago. With those kinds of approvals, Democrats should have made bigger inroads in Florida, but they flamed out, as usual.

[Virginiá]

I mean, Michigan is a state that voted almost 10 points for Obama in 2012 and some absurd 16 points in 2008. I'd argue it is still a pres-level Leans D state, keeping in mind that Trump won with only 47.50% of the vote. He was never popular in MI. It's just Clinton was about as unpopular as him, and she lost out among people who hated both.

What I find truly amazing is that Trump is able to average out >40% approval in any aggregator. Think of everything he has done, his obscene and untrustworthy character, the ongoing investigation(s) into him/his campaign. It's really something. This guy is a joke, but so many people don't care and even enjoy it, as if having a moron in office is refreshing.

[Virginiá]

^ Can't help but be picky here - Russian hackers are notoriously more experienced and advanced in their methods/malware than Chinese hackers. The only thing I might credit China with having a possible edge in is the ability to wage a more effective propaganda campaign. They have a lot of people and resources that could be devoted to that.

[Virginiá]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/22/trump-2018-midterms-republicans-480417

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Now we know how Trump copes with all these polls showing him underwater. Just add 9

[Virginiá]

I don’t, honestly. Democracies across the West are going through a weird funk with their elected leadership. I’ll qualify that by saying that if Trump just kept his mouth shut and his Twitter account turned off he’d probably be in the low 50s, and that all four mentioned leaders have popularity issues for reasons unique to them and the political cultures of their respective countries.

I'm not so sure about that anymore. He started his presidency underwater. Not all of that was because of his Twitter account either. Obama was beginning to take on water by this point in his presidency too, and he never sat on Twitter spewing drama like Trump did. I think it's possible that Trump may have been slightly less unpopular without Twitter but the reasons why so many people strongly disapprove of him right now would still exist with or without his Twitter account. At the end of the day, the Russia investigation (and all that comes with it), AH tape, and so on, would still exist.

[Virginiá]

I have to say, I think I am glad Gallup went to weekly polls. My political junky-side loves daily updates, but the more practical side of me likes the decreased obsession with small swings that over the long-run prove to be meaningless.

[Virginiá]

Interesting tidbit on the CNN poll:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Those numbers alone basically sum up why the president's party almost always does so poorly in midterms.

[Virginiá]

BTW, the Morning Consult poll looks even worse when you delve into the crosstabs. This was with one of their funky Trump +5 samples:

2016 Vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton - 658 (33%)
2016 Vote: Republican Donald Trump - 767 (38%)
2016 Vote: Someone else - 89 (9%)

It's not uncommon for people to forget or otherwise misreport their past votes and say they went with who actually ended up winning. It's also possible that in addition to that issue, they over-polled Trump supporters, but I can't say for sure.

[Virginiá]

Most polls have shown the opposite, more people saying they voted for Clinton. MC is the only one I've seen regularly have a Trump lead.

I don't know exactly what that speaks to though - whether they are over-polling Clinton voters or Trump supporters are saying they voted for Clinton. I do remember this becoming a topic in 2016 when there was that poll that kept contacting the same people to see how their vote choice shifted over the campaign, and it was initially based on who they previously voted for in 2012, which brought up questions of why the 2012 support samples were not representative of that election. Although I could have it backwards in who people are most likely to say they voted for - the winner or the loser, maybe depending on how they view the actual winner (eg, disapprove/approve).

At any rate, I'm no expert on it, just regurgitating what I've read

[Virginiá]

AP survey of 1027 Americans age 15-34 only, Feb 22-March 9

Approve 33 (Strongly 12)
Disapprove 67 (Strongly 47)

I'm kind of curious how much the 30-34 portion of that approves. The youngest seem to have the highest disapproval, so Trump could be even deeper in the hole with 18-29 year olds.

I can't wait to see how Republicans perform with 18-29 year olds this November. Conditions seem ripe for a 2008-level blowout (House vote - 65D - 35R).

"Most conservative generation in history"

 

[Virginiá]

King Lear's semi-reasonable numbers obscure the fact that in his mind, it is impossible for Democrats to even come close to them despite being a theoretical maximum*

* that is, if he even believes his own act, which is hardly a given

[Virginiá]

Now that's a weekly number that I'd like to see the daily ones for. It would suggest that he got one or more with at least 42%, based on how the daily polls used to jump around. Maybe even 43%.

[Virginiá]

I think Democrats/Liberals are in a bubble about Trump. It seems like that he's getting more unpopular every day with more scandals and more chips falling.

He's still unpopular. I don't know how many people here routinely blow off these polls as fake or whatever, which would be that bubble syndrome you're speaking of. I certainly don't really doubt these. I do have questions of why these people seem to have less issues with him, but I'm not sure if there are answers.

Either way, the only times where it really concerns me is before elections, so each November until he is out of office. As it stands now, the generic ballot seems to be operating in such a way that he doesn't need to be in the low-mid 30s to get a blowout, which in retrospect seems reasonable, since even Obama wasn't that unpopular in 2010 and Republicans still rode a wave back to power. In fact, Obama was more unpopular in 2014 but Republicans had a smaller PV majority than when Obama was more popular in 2010.

Edit: Also, what superbudgie1582 said. I'd love it if people maintained consistently negative views of a man who deserves no more than that, but he is bound to swing back and forth. If he spends half of 2018 on an upswing that sees him slightly less unpopular, but then swings back to being unpopular (repeat several times before 2020), what difference does it make? The real problem for Democrats would be if he started regularly crossing 50% approval in numerous major polls and remained there for long periods of time.

[Virginiá]

lmao

that account is unquestionably a bot

That person does seem to have a digital footprint, like this:

https://soundcloud.com/rock-prin

Same avatar everywhere is kind of suspicious, but audio rants not so much.

What I'm curious about is how exactly LimoLiberal found this person's tweet. It seems like a random person to bump into. Did LimoLiberal send this user their post to tweet ?

[Virginiá]

Donald J. Trump
‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump

Just got recent Poll - much higher than President O at same time....Well, much more has been accomplished!

lmao

I can't for the life of me understand how he is rationalizing that in his head. It only makes sense if he thinks tax reform was so big and so meaningful that it trumps everything Obama did, which in his first 2 years, was decently substantial. Obviously I wish it had been more, or at least different things, but it wasn't nothing. And Trump can't use Gorsuch as an excuse here either, because Obama had two justices of his own, and Gorsuch wouldn't have even been an option had his party decided that stealing scotus seats was maybe a step too far if they ever want to have reasonable relations with Congressional Democrats.

Meanwhile, with Republicans, literally all they've done is a scam tax bill that is leaving us deeper in debt and little else, rolling back some regulations, and passing budgets that their own party seems to hate. This is all on top of them essentially planning on doing nothing for most/all of 2018!

It's these kinds of little pointless and easily disproven lies that make me question why his supporters stand by him. He lies about everything, even the little things that do not matter.

[Virginiá]

I am not trying to be elitist, but when I talk about the russia stuff in public with people, most of them appear just plain ignorant or dumb about all of its ins and outs.

My aunt, bless her heart, is an independent voter and doesn't even know who george papadoupoulos is. I imagine the average american (think the average person in line at dmv or walmart) is embarrassingly uninformed about the investigation.

I don’t think that’s elitist at all. Atlas is not representative of the American public, lol. We’re the strange ones!

The truth is that there are a lot of moving parts, various threads and figures of varied importance in the case Mueller is working. I can barely keep track, and I follow it closely. The average voter has a vague sense that something is going on, but probably don’t know much about it.

What marty said is probably why the public hasn't punished Trump (long-term) for the Mueller stuff. There is no clear narrative to it right now. Mueller is still working his way through the case, and we only have bits and pieces of a bigger story. It's not really enough to make sense to the average voter. You would think the fact that all these people close to Trump/his campaign getting indicted would reflect poorly on Trump, but until/unless there is some bigger story that can be summarized more easily for a the everyday joe, it might never amount to much for much of the electorate.

Trump getting slapped with "unindicted co-conspirator", recommended for impeachment or the fabled holy grail of the left, even getting indicted somehow while in office, that would also probably hurt Trump, so long as the basis for it is not too complex to understand.

[Virginiá]

I have to agree with both of you. On one hand, with the economy doing well, Trump is not really benefiting much from it because he's so controversial and constantly surrounded by scandal.

On the other hand, Trump is constantly surrounded by scandal and is super controversial. The fact that his numbers are this high is a testament to how broken our system is, or maybe rather how poor judges of character the American people are. They didn't need to elect Donald Trump to achieve most of the same outcomes, but instead they went with someone who is a constant embarrassment to this country and is probably the most corrupt, dishonest and incompetent candidate of the entire 2016 field on both sides.

Due to the importance and attention placed on the presidency, the person who occupies that office should be someone people can look up to, someone smart and thorough, among other attributes. Trump is none of this. He's an abomination by any reasonable measure.

[Virginiá]

I would say the GOP is still more the party of George W Bush than Trump (which is a good thing).

It's really too early to say one way or another. You can't honestly make that call before even the first midterm of the post-2016 era. As for what you said - it sounds about right. Trump has rolled over a lot, but in some ways it's hard to know exactly what he was ever serious about. He seemed in line with tax cuts, the devil was just in the details. Immigration seems like a bigger issue now due to him, even if he won't get his wall. Candidates are trying to replicate his success by acting like him in some places (Clinton this, culture wars that). As for Trump trying to neutralize the issue of social programs - again, he never even seemed serious about this. He knows it's not popular to talk about gutting social programs, so he lied about it but basically signaled that he would sign bills if they got to him after taking office. At the end of the day, nothing has changed here. Republicans are still against the safety net but too afraid to do anything about it. Any lasting legacy from Trump on this is that they may be more open to straight up lying about their position on it and then trying to sneak through changes later on.

Trump is leaving his mark on the party, but it's much too early to know what it looks like in the future.

[Virginiá]

It really says something about much of this country that Trump is even as popular as he is (which isn't great, but it's way better than it should be). Like, I get it, he's a Republican president, so Republicans are going to find reasons to like him. But the thing is, they could have gotten a lot of what he's delivered with someone else and completely forgone all the international shame, the constant scandal, the cronyism, corruption and pure incompetence. People should loathe this kind of behavior from a president, and yet they find reasons to excuse it.

On a side note, didn't Trump actually make the argument during the campaign that Clinton's presidency would be non-stop scandal and drama? And yet that is exactly what his has become, which is of course no surprise.

[Virginiá]

Well, he's a whiner and keeps whining till he wins.

That quote is something I actually found to be a good indicator of how incredibly insane it is that someone as big of a joke as Donald Trump managed to become POTUS. This guy actually said that, and he's said things far worse and/or far dumber, such as this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y2lBz0532wU

"I'm speaking with myself, number 1, because I have a very good brain and I've said a lot of things"

He actually said that. On live TV.

It's hard to even summarize everything wrong with Trump in one post, mostly because there are so many things wrong with him. His insane amount of lying is the other big one. He lies about everything, even little things that make no difference, and are easily disproven. He is such a pathological liar that he'll even lie about saying something when there is video/audio of him saying whatever just hours or days prior.

I guarantee that if most people knew a regular person like this - just some guy from their community, they would hate him and not trust him with anything, and yet because he runs for the presidency as a Republican, bam, suddenly he's credible to these people. Pretty hard to describe just how poor judges of character these voters are.


/rant

[Virginiá]

This belongs in the megathread.

This is a potentially game-changing poll after a unique summit, so it likely deserves a thread on its own.

Oh please. This has a change in approval of literally zero and a decrease of disapproval of 2 from their last poll, which is within the margin of error so it could easily be noise.

This is not remotely a game changer.

But Tender thinks it is, and he is one of the forum's most stubborn users, so don't expect him to concede anything here.

[Virginiá]

But Tender thinks it is, and he is one of the forum's most stubborn users, so don't expect him to concede anything here.

This has nothing to do with me really.

The "megathread" is intended for casual polls that are popping up like mushrooms and show no real movement.

This poll deserves a thread on its own.

I remember in 2016 that time you posted a poll thread with a misleading subject and you insisted on arguing with half a dozen people instead of just making a small change.

You always think you are correct and your decisions must stand. Like I said, you are incredibly stubborn.

[Virginiá]

Democracy Corps (D), June 1-5, 1400 RV with a subsample of 518 in 12 "battleground states": AZ, CO, FL, GA, MI, MN, NV, NM, OH, PA, TN, WI

National:

Approve 45 (strongly 21)
Disapprove 55 (strongly 42)

Battleground states:

Approve 46 (strongly 20)
Disapprove 54 (strongly 40)

Generic Congressional ballot: National D 51, R 42 (D+9), Battleground states D 49, R 43 (D+6)

D+6 isn't too shabby for that set of states, particularly with TN in the mix.