Are the Democrats failing or doing well as an opposition?

[Virginiá]

No. The only reason they look like a strong opposition is because Trump and the current GOP congressional leadership are incompetent.

I'd have to agree, at least in part. Republicans are a mess, and it's stalling out their agenda bigly. And as for opposition on the left, that's just the thing. Activist energy is helping to fuel the opposition, which is separate from Congressional Democrats. The party itself is still making bumbling mistakes, such as that thing about Ellison supporters.

But this doesn't mean I think Democrats won't still do well next year. I think Republicans were probably destined to make huge gains in 2010 too, simply due to Democratic missteps in power and a slow economic recovery. Same thing seems to be happening now. An incompetent Congressional GOP and Trump intent on burning his party at the stake is helping to fuel a large backlash against the Republican Party.

In the end, I could see Democrats making substantial gains next year and at that point you'll probably see a shift in opinion of how the party is doing. It's easy to dump on them year after year when they keep losing. Not so easy if they actually start winning.

[Virginiá]

But according to by-election results it's not working for Democrats.

Even in a wave election, there are leagues of seats that the losing party still holds without much of a problem. The Congressional seats that were up are not really what would be considered top targets for Democrats, even in a wave. GA-6 maybe, but just barely. The other districts were pretty heavily Republican.

And if you want to go by legislative special elections, then Democrats seem primed for large gains next year. Averaging their performance in all these specials, there seems to be a large swing in favor of Democrats. Doesn't seem reasonable to ignore that just because they didn't pull rabbits out of hats in very conservative CDs.

[Virginiá]

If you are looking for someone to keep Trump accountable and in check, vote Democrat.  If you're not, vote Republican.  

That should be enough.  It's simple and easy to understand.  

That is probably one of the best messages you can use whenever the incumbent president is unpopular. Its effectiveness is increased when the president's party is looking crooked, which Trump's administration is making too easy.

Throw in some deeply unpopular policies being pushed by the party in power (gutting ObamaCare, tax cuts for the wealthy) and you have a winning strategy.