I just don't see him winning these states in 2020. He did not crack 50 percent here and won by less than a point in each. He will not be running against Hillary and the 3rd party vote is surely to decrease. The dynamics will be completely different. There were many 3rd party votes from folks who didn't want to get their hands dirty by voting Hillary bc they thought she'd win anyway. Now Trump is here and I'm sure many of these voters can be convinced to coalesce around the Dem candidate.
And the Obama-Trump voters should be easy to sway back as long as a GOP Congress continue to be unproductive. God help us if Trump actually stops getting in his own way.
This sounds reasonable. I don't get why anyone could be bullish on Trump's chances in WI/MI/PA when his actual winning margin was comfortably below 50% in each. He lucked out quite a bit running against someone almost as unpopular as he was
(or in some states, less popular). There is absolutely no guarantee that happens again, no matter how much the GOP machine goes after the nominee. Further, he will no longer be a total outsider at that point. He will have to own 4 years of the country's problems, and if his approvals are
this bad against a fairly decent Democratic candidate, then I don't really understand how he pulls it off.
In my opinion, Trump has all the signs of having an 2012 Obama-like effect - as in, his 2nd run will be much weaker than his first due to sagging popularity. If that is the case, he will have a pretty big losing margin if the Democrat picks up not only most of the 3rd party votes, but some former Trump supporters who feel disillusioned
(or simply stay home).
