Is Pennsylvania drifting towards solid GOP? (user search)
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  Is Pennsylvania drifting towards solid GOP? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Is Pennsylvania drifting towards solid GOP?  (Read 5719 times)
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
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Posts: 18,916
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

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« on: July 09, 2017, 09:13:45 PM »

Of interest, 18-24 voted 50-45% for Clinton in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is 81% white (so I'd assume 78-79% white in 2020). Trump's Administration probably dictates how this age cohorts would view the GOP and vote accordingly in 2020 and 2024. If he stabilizes and demonstrates he's a viable GOP model, younger Pennsylvanian whites might go GOP more heavily. If not, I can see the rising Generation Z types revolting and putting PA in the blue column again. To date, downballot, I still haven't seen the GOP strength that's been demonstrated elsewhere in the Midwest on the row office level.  

The 18-24 group was quite a spectacular change in PA. Of all the age groups, this was really the only one which underwent a fundamentally large shift to the Republican. Every other group was only small improvements, if that. It should be noted that most of the 18-24 year olds in 2016 would not be previous Obama voters.

Might be useful to keep an eye on Trump's approvals among 18-29 year olds in PA. I think he could just as easily lose this group than hold them, and overall it is in the GOP's best interests to make a positive imprint on them now... except that it's hard to see that being the case. Nationally at least, Trump is absolutely bombing with 18-29 year olds. It's consistently his worst age group.
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Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,916
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW
« Reply #1 on: July 17, 2017, 04:45:59 PM »

As opposed to Atlas Democrats suggesting that because college educated Whites revolted against ONE GOP nominee (and still voted for him in plurality!), they are going to become this core Democratic constituency or a sign of an area that might be hospitable to Democrats??

To be fair, my beliefs behind that particular demographic are based on more longstanding trends and the Millennial generation.

That being said, I think any alliance between the wealthier members of the white college graduate group and the Democratic Party will always be fragile. I guess it just depends on how many of those voters end up well-off enough to be swayed by the GOP's tax policy (which I might add seems more directed at the hyper-wealthy). When Millennials come to represent most of the more upscale white college graduates, tax policy is probably going to be one of the very few things Republicans have to lure them in with.
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