Atlantic: Trump Can't Reverse the Decline of White Christian America

[Virginiá]

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/07/robert-jones-white-christian-america/532587/

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[Virginiá]

I mean honestly a "whites only" strategy at this point still seems as stupid as it did before Trump's win. Donald didn't win some sky-high number of whites, and it continues to suggest that in the average election, Republicans do actually have a ceiling to the amount of votes they can milk from whites. Combine that with the fact that whites are continuing to decrease as a share of the electorate and that white Millennials are somewhat more Democratic, leaving Republicans with less whites to work with when they will need them the most, and you have a recipe for big league losing, even if it doesn't happen for another decade or so.

I swear, if there was ever an argument for long-term over short-term thinking, this is it. Republicans who care about their party shouldn't let the fact that they are winning elections right now distract from the problems their current strategies will bring later. And if you think current Republicans don't need to worry because they have so much power right now, allow me to point you to the elections of 1994 and 2010.

[Virginiá]

Not every future GOP candidate will suck as bad the Orange Clown sucks.

Still, Republicans have not had a candidate since Reagan 1984 that could win the number of whites they will need to win consistently in the future. They can't even really break Bush1 numbers. And this is a white electorate that is good for them. Imagine the future, which is made up mostly of white Millennials.

[Virginiá]

Meanwhile, they hold more elected offices than anytime in almost 100 years.

Well no one said it isn't working right now, although their performance in presidential elections has been notably weak since the days of Reagan.

I'm not sure if I said it in this thread or another, but one reason not to put too much emphasis on downballot power as a marker for future success is the elections of 1994 and 2010, but especially '94. If you told Democrats they would lose the House for the next 12 years in 1994, along with a slew of states, they'd probably have called you deluded. Rapid shifts of power can and do happen. In fact, if I recall correctly, there was even a book released in early 1994 about Republicans in the House of Reps, called "Congress' Permanent Majority."

[Virginiá]

You're welcome to believe whatever hoodoo you want, but after the repeateded failure of the Dems to win based upon this "demographics as destiny" theory, I shall remain skeptical. There is way too much slack in our political system for either party to have near permanent dominance over political power.

Well any idea of permanent majorities sounds kind of silly. It's not really possible, at least without substantial violence.

I think people have just been too quick to try and make each election sound like a game changer, but I still believe there is a day of reckoning coming. It's not going to be permanent, but things will change. They always do.

[Virginiá]

Even if that's true, helping the left is the only practical effect your efforts are having. You were in the driver's seat of the conservative movement in America for years, and this country has only gotten more and more left-wing as far as culture is concerned.

I mean, did you really think the left would never come back? Times change, and conservatives were not really adapting to the world that was changing around them. America has always undergone swings back and forth between competing ideologies and policies. You guys don't get to control everything forever, and neither do we.

And let's be honest, Republicans have essentially forfeited the Millennial generation anyway. The party didn't want to change at all to appeal to them, so they just shifted their focus solely to old people and essentially told young people to get bent. What did you expect to happen?