Vox: The overall message of 2017 special elections is Republicans are in trouble

[Virginiá]

The overall message of 2017 special elections is that Republicans are in trouble

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/6/21/15846464/republicans-are-in-trouble

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Finally:

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You can define 'trouble' however you want, though. Trouble could mean losing the House, or barely holding it and maybe losing it in 2020, or it could mean holding the House but losing bigly in Governors races/etc.

But the point is that Republicans significantly lost ground to Democrats in districts with all kinds of demographic profiles, showing that Democrats have already proven they can make up lost ground with working class whites while also keeping their newfound gains with white college graduates. While everyone is bickering about losing special elections in deeply Republican districts, not appreciating the massive swings to Democrats would be absurd. We have had a number of special elections in legislative and Congressional seats so far, and it is enough to say that Republicans are likely facing a pretty bad midterm - that is, unless things get significantly better for Trump and Republicans, which isn't likely so long as Mueller is there.

Let's also keep something else in mind - it's not all about Congress. It's also about state legislative and gubernatorial races, both of which Republicans are overextended in. State politicians can sometimes avoid the heat of their national party, but not completely.

Anyway, good article. Worth a read.

[Virginiá]

Did you guys actually read the article? It did criticize Democratic leadership for their assumptions and strategy. What it doesn't do is cast aside the massive swings in all the special elections and numerous legislative elections, as if it means nothing, because it does. It also stated that Republicans still have a substantial advantage in holding the House.

Seriously, I'm just curious - how exactly is Ossoff performing 3-4 points better and winning make such a substantial difference in the importance of the numbers long-term? If that was the case, I guarantee we'd see a whole less bickering, yet in reality the numbers suggest it shouldn't even matter.

[Virginiá]

The two things I'm worried the Ossoff loss might affect is (1) fundraising from small donors - not a substantial depression, but maybe a little, and (2) Potential retirements from various House Republicans. It was suggested that the more Republicans thought they were in trouble, the more likely it would have been that some in competitive districts would not run again.

The thing is, I know (2) matters, but (1) more and more seems less important. I mean I know money matters, but if the voters are pissed off at your party, you aren't likely to change their minds with ads and mailers.