Texas votes for a Democrat in 2020 or 2024 (user search)
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  Texas votes for a Democrat in 2020 or 2024 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Texas votes for a Democrat in 2020 or 2024  (Read 3440 times)
Virginiá
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« on: June 19, 2017, 06:43:57 PM »

The Texas GOP is very skilled at winning over Hispanics (who are already bleeding generationally to the GOP at the national level) so I don't see why people think this is happening.

Since when? And what generation(s)/age groups? Trump's performance with young (18-29) Hispanics was about as poor as Romney.
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Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,916
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW
« Reply #1 on: June 19, 2017, 07:54:18 PM »

It's up for debate, but it's a fact in the 1960s Democrats were carrying 90 percent of the Hispanic vote. Today they hoover around two-thirds.

They've been pretty stable at their current numbers though. GOP landslide or not, Democrats have tended to oscillate between the same numbers. IIRC, Bill Clinton's win in 1996 actually netted the biggest winning margin on record (I don't have exit polls of 1964), and I don't even think it was higher than Obama's top % with Hispanics - it was just wider. Clinton's weakness with young voters in general hurt her with all races, but it didn't seem to benefit Trump that much. They defected to 3rd parties. As I understand it, Hillary also had a more unique issue with young Hispanic voters that was highlighted somewhat during the election.

My point being that recent election results have all been within the realm of normal for Democrats. The only issue I might find is with those who postulate that if whites continue trending Republican, even past, say, 65% or so, then Democrats really need to be running up the score with non-white voters even more so. Given the generational trends with white voters, I don't think the GOP will be able to pull that off. Not without converting a ton of liberal Millennials into Republicans.

CivicYouth has some states on race/age:

http://www.civicyouth.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/CIRCLE_2012Election_GenderRace_ForWeb1.pdf
http://civicyouth.org/PopUps/FactSheets/FS_08_exit_polls.pdf

CivicYouth is a great resource for young voter stats, but they always seem somewhat disorganized. Their 2016 report doesn't have the same degree of statistics on race, or if they do it is hidden somewhere. Here is their official report:

http://civicyouth.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/CIRCLE-Full-Exit-Poll-Analysis_Final.pdf
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