What states do you think will vote for a different party? (2018 Senate election)

[Virginiá]

I think there are other reasons why party control at the state level means less for federal offices than one might think, but as Miles was saying, Republicans have tended to fare less spectacularly when you look at the actual number of votes cast, which is a lot more relevant in this case than seat count, seeing as we are talking about a statewide election. Favorable maps and geography combined with a string of GOP-favorable elections have inflated their numbers in the legislature beyond what they would normally be.

As far as Trump's victory in Michigan goes, I really don't know how far anyone should be taking that result in terms of long-term GOP success. Trump only won around ~47.50. It was less of a dominating victory and more of a screw-up by the Democratic Party if you ask me. Personally, I'm going to wait until Nov 2020 before I start beginning to draw conclusions on the status of the rust belt.