Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[Virginiá]

http://www.politico.com/interactives/2017/trumps-approval-how-low-can-he-go/

^ tool to manipulate his approval ratings among certain demographics to see what it takes to get his approvals to >50%

[Virginiá]

Well, one of the good things I see here is that Trump's approvals are so low in Connecticut that it could still enable a relatively easy hold on the Govs office / state legislature even despite local economic issues. His numbers in Illinois do not do Rauner any favors, either.

[Virginiá]

True, but Rauner always distanced himself from Trump and did not vote for him. Although he's a billionaire as well, he's a completely different personality and has different views. Trump's numbers in MA and MD are even worse, but I think that both Governor Baker (R-MA) and Governor Hogan (R-MD) are favored to win reelection next year. IL is a toss-up.

I guess, but that only goes so far, imo. Lots of politicians from both sides have tried to distance themselves from the head of the party during times where that incumbent was unpopular and it rarely works. At the end of the day, Rauner is still an unpopular Republican Governor under an unpopular Republican president in a deep blue state that has had a lot of turbulence as of late. I think for Rauner to have a good shot at staying on, he needs at least one of those things I listed above^ to be in his favor.

Instead, the only thing he has going for him is money, and if Pritzker is the nominee, he won't even have that. Given that Rauner will have to face an electorate shaped by disproportionate partisan enthusiasm in favor of Democrats, it's hard for me to see a light at the end of the tunnel for him.

[Virginiá]

Gallup (July 25th)

Approve 37% (+1)
Disapprove 58% (-1)

[Virginiá]

Gallup (July 26th)

Approve 39% (+2)
Disapprove 55% (-3)

[Virginiá]

Gallup (July 27th)

Approve 39% (-/-)
Disapprove 54% (-1)

[Virginiá]

Noise. I doubt we see any major drop in his support for a while unless there's a recession. Conversely, I really doubt he has any ability to significantly increase his support outside of a 9/11 level event.

What would you say the time span between noise and actual, notable movement is? I'd say about 5-6 days. That way we are almost/entirely through 2 full cycles of their rolling average.

I'd also note how hard it seems to be for Trump to realize 40% or more approval rates. His disapprove numbers seem to fall more readily then his approves can rise.

[Virginiá]

Gallup (July 28th)

Approve 39% (-/-)
Disapprove 56% (+2)


-

Trump remains stalled out at 39% for the 3rd day in a row, and disapproval rating spikes up again.

[Virginiá]

Gallup (July 29th)

Approve 38% (-1)
Disapprove 57% (+1)

[Virginiá]

Gallup (July 31st)

Approve 37% (-/-)
Disapprove 59% (-/-)

[Virginiá]

Gallup (August 1st)

Approve 36% (-1)
Disapprove 60% (+1)

[Virginiá]

Needing 58%, or a margin higher than even the 1974 Watergate backlash is something I'll really have to see to believe. And while I say this as a partisan I also say it as someone who cares about stability in America - I really hope we don't see something like that, because having a pseudo-permanent GOP House majority built on the back of a broken system is a great way for a lot of Americans to genuinely lose faith in our system of government. By no means are we guaranteed a safe, stable and prosperous society. We have to work together to keep it this way, and if one group in the country is so greedy for power that they would maintain a crooked system like that, then violence is sure to ensue at some point. I say this knowing full well that if that study was right and Democrats have basically no chance, then the GOP will not only refuse to fix it but will defend such a system until it no longer benefits them.

Of course, even while I agree Democrats need a substantial win in the House PV to win even a slim majority, I think it's more around 7% or so, not 15 - 20%. I would expect that once Republicans lose their majority or find it greatly diminished, it will be easier to maintain/win a majority in the future as Republicans will no longer have a large incumbency advantage.

[Virginiá]

Is it wrong to love watching Trump fail?

In a way, we should want him to succeed, because that would be good for the country, but personally I have no hope for him anyway and I believe the agenda of Congressional Republicans will only continue to hurt this country, so wanting him to fail is by extension wanting Democrats to succeed next year. In that sense, I feel no regrets.

[Virginiá]

Is Trump going to have a heart attack when he keeps seeing these brutal numbers?

Trump has proven to be very good at ignoring anything that challenges his preconceived notion of himself. When the polls are good, they are real and touted as proof of his success, and when they are bad, they are nothing but fake trash. It's really that simple in his head. Only he knows what goes on in his own mind, but it's quite possible that he truly sees it that way, and he isn't just putting up a front for the world to see.

[Virginiá]

I had to delete the NH thread because the usual suspects were derailing it with their trolling, but as you may know Trump called NH a "drug-infested den" in a telephone conversation with the Mexican president.

So don't be surprised if his disapproval goes up even more in the state, if that's even possible. Hopefully this helps Democrats take back the state for good in 2018.

Aww, you should have just locked it . I was planning on skimming that thread.

[Virginiá]

Gallup (August 3rd)

Approve 36% (-/-)
Disapprove 58% (-/-)

[Virginiá]

I actually don't. I want him to be in office during the midterms, and if he's removed too quickly, the GOP could plausibly say "we had no idea this lunatic was going to be this bad" and there's a non-negligible chance that voters forget all about it by the time of the next election. The GOP needs to reap what it sowed with Trump.

On the contrary, I think impeachment/removal from office could destroy the GOP's majorities for the next 2 or so cycles. No one is going to forget that, and they will all know the GOP participated in removing Trump from office, which fits nicely with Donald's talk about "the swamp" and "the elites." Indies would rush to Democrats and tons of Trump-supporting Republicans would defect or stay home, as I doubt they will be quick to forgive their own party for such backstabbing. Plus, you have to consider how long it would take to boot him out. Even if they started quickly, he could still be in office as late as the end of the year.

And of course, imagine what Trump would be doing when he's out of office ? He'll haunt the Republican Party for years.

[Virginiá]

It's possible, but I really don't think the GOP would get off easy if they removed Trump from office. That is something I would have to see to believe. With Ford, that was a great time for conservatives in general if you put aside Watergate. They were the ascendant ideology at the time. With Clinton's impeachment, you had a case where the public seemed to disagree with impeachment and Clinton was personally popular. Trump seems to have little of that on his side. He's very unpopular and as the Russia stuff progresses, people are not supporting him as much as I think it would take. As for Coolidge, I don't know much about that time. I can't comment.

[Virginiá]

One man by himself cannot doom a Party. Even the GOP came back just two years after Bush left office (2010).

Well hold on - what do we mean by doom? It's reasonable to say I'm overreaching in thinking 2020 would have similar anti-GOP intensity as 2018 (which I think is guaranteed, as the impeachment would be way too close), but I don't think it matters how different Pence is, he's going to pay a penalty, especially since he came into office with Trump. He was on his ticket, and it's not out of the question to think he may even be roped into some shenanigans himself (although personally I'm not betting on it). At least Ford was detached that from the Nixon administration prior to Watergate. I just think the question now is, what kind of penalty? Are people just going to brush aside the past 3 years of Republicans screwing things up and bringing shame to the country? Maybe it won't doom Pence but it certainly gives the Democrat in 2020 a very good opening to attack, at which point I guess it depends on how well they work that angle.

[Virginiá]

Gallup (August 4th)

Approve 37% (+1)
Disapprove 55% (-3)

[Virginiá]

Let's check back in another 6 months to see if his trend line continues

I'm not even sure what he is talking about. I didn't say anything other than the raw approval numbers

[Virginiá]

Gallup (August 5th)

Approve 38% (+1)
Disapprove 56% (+1)

[Virginiá]

Gallup (August 6th)

Approve 38% (-/-)
Disapprove 57% (+1)

[Virginiá]

Bob Mueller and Russia will somehow save the Democratic Party.

Honestly, if the fallout from this investigation does cause a wave, then you could very well argue it  temporarily saved the Democratic Party, at least in terms of political power / clout in next redistricting.

The only issue I see is that Trump is so uniquely bad in so many other aspects that a wave couldn't be solely attributed to Mueller, especially with that healthcare debacle in the mix. It'll definitely have an impact, though. I'd bet on it.

[Virginiá]

IBD/TIPP (7/28-8/5)

Approve: 32%
Disapprove: 59%

EDIT: The link isn't working for some reason, but it is real.

Brrrr, it's freezing in here!

538 gives IBD/TIPP an A- rating, and adjusted the numbers to: 34% - 58%

That's pretty bad. Amazing how fast Trump is falling. He might actually hit the 20s before next year's primaries even start.