TheAtlantic: Can Millennials Save the Democratic Party? (2016 analysis) (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 16, 2024, 10:24:42 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 100% pro-life no matter what)
  TheAtlantic: Can Millennials Save the Democratic Party? (2016 analysis) (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: TheAtlantic: Can Millennials Save the Democratic Party? (2016 analysis)  (Read 4584 times)
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,921
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW
« on: March 04, 2017, 06:17:27 PM »

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/03/can-millennials-save-the-democratic-party/518523/

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Polls show college educated and non-college Millennials diverged sharply from 2012:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Trump approvals among non-college Millennials at a solid 50%, per Gallup

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.


There are some other good parts to this article. It's not particularly data-heavy, or at least on data most of us aren't already privy to, but I like articles like this that put it all together in a semi-comprehensive look at the situation as a whole.

It's worth a read, imo. At least for those not generally immersed in this kind of data.
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,921
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW
« Reply #1 on: March 05, 2017, 10:44:55 PM »
« Edited: March 05, 2017, 10:52:19 PM by Virginia »

Obama won every generation but Silents in 2008 and 2012. Clinton won just Millennials. There are four other generations and Millennials are not going to be "young" in the near future.

The Silent generation's electoral power has been on the downswing for years now and within a decade it will be, for a lack of a better term, marginal (no disrespect of course).

Millennials equaled Boomers in eligible voters and within a decade they will be indisputably the dominant generation in America. Democrats currently crush Republicans with this group of voters. Further, Democrats do not perform that bad with Generation X voters. Democrats tend to do pretty well with the younger half, which is the part that skews the 40-49 bloc towards Democrats (even if coming short a little)

My point is that performing well "only" with Millennials and younger gen X is highly misleading if used as a negative point and in fact the current Democratic coalition, age-wise, is still ascendant.


The problem of course for Democrats, as always, is getting young people to turnout.

To be fair, young voters have almost always had a turnout issue, at least since the 20th century. I don't expect any party to really be able to solve this issue without somehow fundamentally changing the way Americans value elections, which I don't think can be done with the way politicians currently behave. That, or maybe if they had half a billion dollar yearly budget to build a massive, permanent organizing infrastructure, though in the end you still need people to inspire them.

Outside of that, the only solution is to wait until they grow up. As generations before them, they will start voting more and more with time.
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,921
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW
« Reply #2 on: March 06, 2017, 08:11:41 PM »
« Edited: March 06, 2017, 08:17:48 PM by Virginia »

The goal for the Democratic Party should be to try and stabilize their performance among white working class voters at somewhere slightly above 2012 levels.

Of course, this is a long-term goal. 2012 levels of WWC voters itself isn't going to cut it downballot, and it needs to supplemented with other groups. Democrats can't ignore this demographic. They just can't. It will take too long for other groups to be able to fill the gap. The geographic distribution of them is most efficient for our prospects in the House and Senate.

I agree with Swing and Beet in different ways. We shouldn't ignore certain groups, but like Swing said, we have limited resources and it might not actually be possible messaging/platform-wise to just get all these groups together. It's a tricky situation, but it is important that the party consider what kind of support it needs downballot and not just in terms of the White House.

---------------------

I would recommend these two pages - They are interactive maps of the US showing concentrations of people by race / age (first link) and education attainment / other factors (second link):

https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/diversity-explosion-the-cultural-generation-gap-mapped/

http://graphics.wsj.com/americamapped/


Look at how they are concentrated. Racial and college/non-college demographics are not consistently spread out over the US, and for the Democratic Party, it presents challenges in state legislatures / Congress if they focus too much on one group.
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,921
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW
« Reply #3 on: March 13, 2017, 11:02:37 AM »

Barring a new message and new policies the Dems will be stuck at the Presidential Level where they were from 1969-1992 because apart from being against Trump they have nothing to offer at the current time in terms of fresh policies and a fresh message. I doubt they will be out of power at the Presidential Level for a long time like they were from 1969-1976 or  1981-1992(apart from Carters single term from 1977-1980) but if they continue down their current path....

What kind of fresh policies are needed? Many policies being pushed for by Democrats have in many cases broad public support, and elections don't always mean rejection of said policies. In fact, in 2016 the only policy that really seemed to be on trial was immigration, and the results are mixed. From a partisan perspective, the Democrats pushing so hard for liberal immigration policy doesn't seem to be helping them much.

But as for things like paid family leave, taxes on the wealthy, reigning in corporations, etc? All popular, more or less.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.029 seconds with 11 queries.