Anyway, people posting on Atlas who think 2018 is going to be some Democratic wave election are delusional. If anyone is positioned to gain seats in the Senate it's Republicans, not Democrats. 2018 isn't going to be a very fun election for our party, ...
I mean there is some reason to believe it will only be an average midterm in terms of losses for the incumbent WH party, and given the Senate map, it is easy to see at least a small net loss for Democrats, but delusional to see a wave for races outside of the Senate with what we're seeing from Trump's administration so far? Things like this are how waves are born, and from another thread I think it was said best that the foundation for a wave exists but it's unclear yet if Democrats can build on it, or if Trump somehow cleans up his act.
Let us not forget that we are coming off of 8 years of Democratic control of the White House, with an incumbent who was only really popular during his first 1.5 years and then during reelection/leaving office. The nasty losses we have seen aren't all irreversible, even if only short-term and fewer in number due to structural issues/gerrymandering.
Finally - historically, unpopular presidents cause losses for the incumbent party. So far since 1946 there is only once instance of a president with <45% approvals costing his party less than 15
(loss was > 10) House seats. The others were greater than 25 seats. The more unpopular, the steeper the losses (usually). That basic correlation has been established, and so far I don't believe there is any reason to think that it won't hold just because Trump is different, or whatever. If the public turns on Republicans sufficiently enough, seats that may have looked like long-shots or even off the table could become competitive.
