GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Virginiá]

For whatever value that that's true (or like, important to people) that's been true for a long while. What's new is its vulgarian face.

The GA-6 had no problem voting for Bush, nor for returning a climate change denier to congress time and time again.

I'll say it again; betting the farm on the opposing party to have a standard bearer for the next 10-20 years who can't be kept off of twitter is probably not a great idea.

I'm not sure that this district was actually on the list of "must-win"'s for the Democratic Party to win a House majority again (in the short-term). It is certainly an option but there are others that could take its place. However in many suburban districts, the openness to Democrats isn't just due to Trump, or in other cases, Trump was a trigger but it was brewing for a long time anyway. There is no guarantee some of these places end up going back to Republicans like they were prior to Trump.

If people want to change the kinds of districts Democrats win in order to have more favorable policy, they are going to have to start running different kinds of candidates, and probably most important of all, different kinds of presidential candidates, and it will take many years to turn the ship, if it can even be done. On top of that, I'm not entirely convinced various liberals will like the kind of changes that might be necessary to claw back working class districts we've lost. It's not a free ride, after all.

[Virginiá]

I fundamentally disagree with you on the analysis of the (affluent) burbs, but we'll have to see.*

As for needing different kinds of candidates, I actually agree. I'm probably more comfortable with the kind of Democrat necessary to compete in the districts I believe are a sustainable coalition for Dems more than most (I'm actually pretty pro-gun, I like football and domestic beer, I don't hate people who are culturally traditional, etc), but I get your point.

What I find most disturbing about Ossoff is the compromises he needs and doesn't need to make to win. Like, what kind of Democrat is releasing ads talking up his status as a deficit hawk? Why is it a good thing that he can get away with being a Georgetown educated Congressional staffer? Agreed that to get things I think are necessary (wholesale investment in sustainable energy, Medicare for All, etc) we need to adjust our identity. But Ossoff seems like a move in the wrong direction from my perspective. Again, his race still deserves investment and I hope he wins. But jeez.

*I think the real major battleground will be poor and downwardly mobile suburbs, but they'll need a very different appeal than the GA-6.

Fair enough. For the record though, I must state I do share some liberals' concerns that taking on increasingly affluent districts will shift the party away from more liberal economic ideas, but my concerns are mitigated by research that shows voters also take on some of the ideas of the politicians they support (something you can also see in polls of the GOP base's shifting views in the Trump era). If that is indeed the case, having more educated, wealthier voters on our side is a plus come time for midterms. They are reliable voters. In addition, even if we did control more of those districts, we still have others that could balance out any economic conservatives with liberals.

Anyway, it's a start at least. Like you were saying, Ossoff isn't perfect but sure as hell better than some empty suit hack like Handel.

[Virginiá]

Personally, I'd much rather see this kind of investment go towards winning the GA gubernatorial election in 2018 than winning 1 House seat, as that would have a much bigger impact in the coming years, but then again, I guess we also do need a symbolic victory right now.

[Virginiá]

I wonder if Democrats could get Obama to do a few rallies for Ossoff close to election time. Maybe he could help give a boost to African American turnout.

[Virginiá]

But Democrats did perform well in the primary - in fact, iirc, they exceeded original expectations. Why would it be different now? He is clearly capable of getting very close to 50%+1 in a district that has traditionally been heavily Republican, so I don't see why it's that unlikely that he could get it exactly, or even a bit over.

+7 is probably too much to ask, but given the previous results, 0.01% - 1% isn't.

[Virginiá]

By the way, this thread is fast approaching 2,500 posts. Will it be locked at some point, or are we going to try to see this election through on one thread?

Personally I'd use this one through the election. I think the issue Dave specified with large threads is that their continued use can cause MySQL to perform slower when it has to fetch data for the thread in question, but since this is a temporary election thread, it will be gone by June 24-25. After that, it will fade into obscurity and the server will no longer be stressed by its biglyness.

Anyways, it's up to ya'll. But fwiw, had already thought about this and left the thread alone because it seemed better to have one collection of Atlas's thoughts on this election as opposed to splitting it up.

[Virginiá]

Why do Republicans keep talking about Democrats stealing seats? It's an election, where candidates try to appeal to voters and get elected. Is it any wonder why there is so little faith in government when we have one party whose primary message is denigrating government at any turn, on top of sowing doubt and stoking fear about our elections?

[Virginiá]

In fairness, you'll often hear the same sort of talk if a white candidate ever has a shot at winning a Democratic primary in a minority-majority district.  And of course, we also heard it when Espailatt was running against Rengel 2012 and 2014. 

That is even worse

I just don't get why people need to start saying that stuff. They know damn well it isn't true, and to keep doing this not reduces trust in our elections, which for all their shortcomings, are still not a sham like in so many other countries. People should be better than this. It's not a high bar to clear ffs.

[Virginiá]

"I don't support a livable wage."

Why would you say that?

What? Did someone actually say those exact words?

[Virginiá]

Handel said that. In context she meant that she didn't support the idea of the minimum wage being increased to create a livable wage. But she did say those exact words before she explained herself.

Good lord, you can't ask for better attack ad material than that juicy soundbite.

[Virginiá]

Closing statements were very interesting. Ossoff ended on a positive note and painted the vision of an optimistic future. Handel ended by trashing Ossoff and calling him fake lol.

That sounds about what you'd expect from someone like Handel.

[Virginiá]

Question I wanted to put up for debate: how will the Comey testimony affect this election?

Honestly, all this drama is very badly timed for Republicans. It's weighing down Trump's approval ratings, and those ratings do have some correlation to downballot performance. The worse a president is viewed, the worse their party tends to performs in elections.

My general thoughts are, if this hurts Trump, it will probably hurt Handel, whether it is via actual vote flipping, or more likely, helping to depress turnout. Unlike districts such as MT-AL and KS-4, GA-6 is much more anti-Trump and thus more receptive to a backlash.

[Virginiá]

I'm pretty sure jfern is a Republican concern troll. Notice how he reflectively bashes every "establishment" Democrat over absolutely nothing

He is cut from the same cloth as those who think there is literally a party conspiracy to shut out viable progressive candidates in working class districts in favor of more moderate/centrist candidates in suburbia. He thinks the establishment would rather stay in the minority with centrists than win with progressives, which is silly, imo. If the party picked up the necessary 24 seats with a dozen or more progressives, the establishment would still have a lot of control. You don't need even close to a unanimously-centrist party to rule it in a centrist fashion. Not that I think this is what is happening, anyhow.

[Virginiá]

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/16/nancy-pelosi-georgia-special-election-ossoff-handel-239615

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Virginiá]

Dumb question, but are they using paper ballots, or software? Is there any chance it could actually be hacked?

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/06/14/will-the-georgia-special-election-get-hacked-215255

(ignore the fearmongering title)

[Virginiá]

What's funny is that Georgia was extremely innovative after the 2000 debacle and became one of the first states in the country to adopt uniform voting standards with electronic machines for every county.

However, we're still using those machines and much of the software some fifteen years later, so the system is...clunky, you could say.

It's a shame it even takes a debacle to get some movement on this issue. If GA had just kept up some sort of investment in elections on a constant basis, we wouldn't have this problem. Elections are really one of the few things we absolutely shouldn't cheap out on.

If this election wasn't so important, I'd say that I wish someone would screw with it, just to help push the legislature to to procure new machines and revamp the way they handle elections.

[Virginiá]

Yeah, I don't understand why some on the left have such a fetish for these districts. Having GA-06 as a higher priority then KS-4 and MT is just common sense politically. The majority of the districts Democrats are going to have to win in 2018 look more like GA-06 then KS-4 and MT

It's more about what they represent. They feel a sustained push for more upscale, wealthier suburban districts with more college educated whites will continue to skew the party's priorities towards the establishment-oriented cosmopolitan wing. Meanwhile, the working class districts would present more opportunities for progressive economic policy. In a way I guess you could look at it as whether the party pursues more socially liberal or economically liberal policies.

I think they are wrong in that assessment, though. We can't really just pick and choose who we want on a dime. Trends that have been ongoing for many years have created this political environment, and in the short-term it's all we have.

Lastly, people will adapt some of their views to fit their partisan choices. Making inroads in suburban districts does not necessarily hinder economically liberal ideas. An alliance with more wealthy voters in the long-run might be unstable, but that will take possibly decades to unravel. In the meantime, those districts will provide lawmakers that will vote for the same kinds of liberal legislation people on the left want.

[Virginiá]

Let's keep the discussion away from arguments about single payer, or 2016 primary/election, progressives vs establishment, etc, please. I mean if you have some substantive, well-written thoughts to share, sure, but arguments - no.

[Virginiá]

I see Atlas has hit the panic button

Possibly. I don't even understand why. This race was still functionally a toss-up even when Ossoff had a tiny lead, and even if Handel now has a tiny lead in some polls, it's still as much a toss-up as it was before.

I'd say I am no more nervous than I was 3 weeks ago, as it's unavoidable in a toss-up where the stakes are largely symbolic but heavily so - Democrats need a win for morale, which would also help with recruiting and fundraising.

[Virginiá]

Win or lose, $23+ million for a House race is a waste. That money could have gone to other races, helping broke state parties recover, stop ALEC from calling a constitutional convention, and so on. There is much better bang for the buck elsewhere than this.

How much was from small donors? The kind of donors everyone has been saying Democrats should rely on. I keep reading your posts and getting the feeling that you think the establishment has been fully funding Ossoff.

[Virginiá]

Even if I liked Ossoff, this would be a waste. Of course people like you got mad when Van Jones said that the Hillary campaign basically set a billion on fire, so I guess it makes since that you don't see the issue with over $23 million in a House race.

Of course it's too much, but people keep sending him money, and he is locked in a tight race, so he is going to keep hoovering up as much as he can so long as he thinks it will make even a tiny difference. Compounded even more so if he has consultants telling him they need more ads/mailers/whatever.

However, the thing about small donors is that they are not easily fatigued, and with so long to go before the 2018 elections, whatever fatigue has set in will almost definitely not exist by then. It's highly unlikely this race, win or lose, will have any negative impact financial-wise on next year's elections.

[Virginiá]

But nope, they'd rather spend well over $100 per vote Ossoff gets.

Again, "they."