VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[Virginiá]

How do you propose to throw out the EC without a constitutional amendment?

NPVIC. It's not what he was talking about with court rulings, but it's perfectly possible to do an end-run around the electoral college, given that states are allowed to hand out their votes as they please. I'd also note that there are more than enough states that allow ballot initiatives or are otherwise already signed on to this to get the EV count past 270.

[Virginiá]

So people are hinting that’s it’s easier for Gillespie to win then northam.
https://mobile.twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/926871117100396550

I would like to see the rationale for doubling the number of people 65+. I get the idea of reducing black turnout, as it did drop nationally by a lot in 2016 (though I must note that it didn't drop at all in Virginia, and in fact went up iirc), but I don't understand why there would be so many more old people and even less young people.

Anyway, if that is what the electorate did in fact end up looking like, it would mean Gillespie has it easy compared to Northam.

[Virginiá]

People take exits at face value while Cohn has argued extensively that they are somewhat off. I remember him saying 2013 was actually 71-14 W/B and not the 21% the exits showed.

Fair enough. I was aware of Cohn's big article on how there are more white voters than we think, but I wasn't privy to his numbers for the black share of the VA electorate.

[Virginiá]

Larry Sabato predicts a narrow Northam win.

http://www.nbc29.com/story/36760091/larry-sabato-releases-his-prediction-for-gubernatorial-election

I don't get this part:

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Does he mean strictly in Virginia, or nationally? Nationwide, youth turnout was about the same as 2012, and as far as I can tell, only marginally less so in Virginia. Obviously it is to Democrats' disadvantage that youth turnout does not constantly rival that of the oldest generations, but I don't see why they would be a unique factor this cycle.

[Virginiá]

New thread due to almost reaching 2,000 posts: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=276670