MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Virginiá]

In other words, if Quist is going to win, he's probably already got a lead with votes returned and there probably wasn't a lot of wiggle room for gains had this happened sooner. In fact, this probably happened at the best possible time assuming the general rule of how EV/ED vote slant applies - and also how the ED Montana electorate is reportedly less partisan.

Wouldn't a few days prior have been optimal? The night before election day doesn't seem to give much time for the electorate to marinate with this scandal. There could be a lot of people going to vote tomorrow that haven't even heard about it yet, in which case, I hope Quist has volunteers out in force giving people a heads up before they vote.

[Virginiá]

Nuclear elmo plz too

How on earth did this thread carry on all night without a nuclear elmo?

[Virginiá]

We did though earlier. Somewhere in the 50's pages

Oh wow, I see it ( https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=254607.msg5665079#msg5665079 )

This night's events have taken up over 20 pages? Jesus. That's like election night.

[Virginiá]

Quist was never going to win. MT went for Trump by 20 points. It's one of those states that still likes to pretend it's open minded but PF just destroyed to liberal New Jersey narrative by expressing his contempt for a liberal eastern professional. Expect him in the senate one day.

Montana is definitely open to Democrats in state and federal offices under the right circumstances. Have you even seen a chart of MT's political party power?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_Montana

Look how blue that is. The legislature is generally reliably Republican but state executive and federal offices have been as Democratic as Republican, and if you look at the Senate seats, Democrats have actually controlled those far longer than Republicans for the past century.

You could be right that maybe Quist specifically was never going to win, but MT is not a dead-end for Democrats.

[Virginiá]

Same reply as to wulfric. I agree that MT was open to Democrats pre 2015, and especially pre 2009, but it's changed. Bullock was lucky to squeak by as an incumbent. I expect the next several years to be very bad for MT Democrats.

Then there is no way to debate you on it anyway, though, you shouldn't be too confident with such limited data/election results to back you up.

[Virginiá]

The evidence is Hillary's 20 point loss in the state, and Bullocks narrow win as an incumbent, plus the non Google consumer survey polls.

That is exactly my point - you're relying on the results of one election. There are plenty of instances where a party has gotten wiped out in one election, only to bounce back in the next (give or take).

[Virginiá]

I'm absolutely taken aghast that a Republican can literally bodyslam a reporter and still even have a chance of winning a congressional seat. It's madness.

Well to be fair, it happened after most of the votes were already cast. Since people can't change their vote, that's that.

[Virginiá]

On the upside, if Piano Man wins (as it looks), Democrats will have either a damaged incumbent or an open seat to run for in 2018.

[Virginiá]

Leave the "3rd way vs liberal" talk out of this thread please.

[Virginiá]

Is it fair to consider Quist's failure a failure of Bernie's populist angle? Quist had a lot of baggage of his own. He wasn't the best candidate for this race.

[Virginiá]

fair enough

[Virginiá]

Ultimately the big takeaway from Montana, does it really challenge the emerging narrative about 2018? I feel it reinforced it.

The way I see it is, if the Republican significantly under-performs compared to past races, then it could still mean bad things for the GOP next year. The win/lose margin is really what is important here, not whether or not Quist were to barely eek a win out.

As 538 said, special elections alone don't really give a good forecast of the midterms, but taken as a group they do an alright job of that. So far, as a group, it looks like the GOP is under-performing a lot in places they shouldn't.

[Virginiá]

But is it strong enough to take back the House? Hmmm

Who knows. I like to think that if Trump / Republicans are already hurting this much just months into his presidency, imagine over a year from now. Trump is wrecking the party's brand.

And yes, things could improve, but Trump so far seems like the personification of entropy. Things always seem to get worse with him.

[Virginiá]

jfern, anti-jfern peeps, plz cut it out thanks

[Virginiá]

I guess I can't explain it any better after all.

You're wasting your time. This thread is entering its progressive persecution phase.

Abandon ship!

[Virginiá]

Yesterday's election was a truly scary indictment of the people of Montana. A majority of the population said with their vote that assault is a good and honorable thing.

How? Most of the votes were cast before that happened.

[Virginiá]

Yesterday's election was a truly scary indictment of the people of Montana. A majority of the population said with their vote that assault is a good and honorable thing.

This is a bit over the top.  The majority of votes were cast before the assault happened, so your conclusion does not follow.

Regardless, in any sane state, the election day vote would be Pro-Quist enough to at least pull Assaulterforte under a majority of the vote.

Doesn't really matter. It still makes that statement of yours I bolded wrong. You don't know for sure that a majority of them would have still voted for Piano Man if it happened before voting started. If you're going to try and indict the character of the people of Montana, they ought to at least be given a fair shake on that.