Youth Vote (user search)
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: The Dowager Mod, Dereich)
  Youth Vote (search mode)
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Author Topic: Youth Vote  (Read 3851 times)
Virginiá
Virginia
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Posts: 18,916
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Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

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« on: November 24, 2016, 12:52:14 PM »
« edited: November 24, 2016, 12:56:49 PM by Virginia »

Clinton won 54%, Trump won 37%. Does anyone know how it was by state?

http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/national/president
http://civicyouth.org/full-analysis-young-voters-in-the-2016-general-election/

I wonder what it was in MI, IOwa, and Ohio?

Michigan (18-29)Sad  57 - 34 Clinton
Iowa (18-29)Sad  48 - 42 Trump
Ohio (18-29)Sad  51 - 42 Clinton

The most troubling trends for Democrats, are, imo, in Wisconsin, Minnesota and Pennsylvania. She lost the 18-24 vote by very slim margins in WI and MN, and won by a small margin in PA. These are all states where Obama absolutely destroyed Romney among young voters, so for Clinton to actually lose it, or get a reduced margin, is quite something. However, it's worth noting that Clinton was an absolutely terrible fit for the rustbelt and is widely unliked and viewed as dishonest by young voters nationwide, so she was bound to tank among them in some places.

One election with poor youth vote results doesn't matter much in the grand scheme of things. Gore did poorly among young voters and then the next 16 years led to a huge pro-Democrat trend among them. If the next Democratic candidate in 2020 also performs poorly in these states, I'd say they could be starting a shift to the right.

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Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,916
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW
« Reply #1 on: December 07, 2016, 07:41:45 AM »

Those numbers actually still seem troubling for Republicans.  Democrats just need to hold onto that generation as it ages because the next generation isn't going to be much better for the GOP as it will inevitably be very diverse.

This is one reason why Trump might be beneficial long-term in terms of partisan advantages for Democrats. People growing up under so many years of one-party White House rule will inevitably build grievances towards that party as said party takes the blame for years and years of troublesome issues - terrorist attacks, economic problems, various other social conflicts, etc, which could weaken the bonds to newer generations, particularly if the party can't adapt to changing attitudes.

However, with Trump in and widely despised by young people, he could serve as a booster shot to the Democratic Party in that he'll drive young people even further away from the GOP and help prime teenagers against the Republican Party as they enter the electorate. Especially if we get a recession sometime in the next 4 years. The fact that the GOP has done pretty much nothing to adapt to newer generations compounds that problem bigly.

At this point, I'm just wondering exactly when the GOP will win the youth vote nationally, which would realistically require winning substantially more minorities than they are now. It would represents a long-lasting breakthrough in the electorate. If they can't, they will never win young voters and thus (likely) the future.
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