2018 Senate Rankings

[Virginiá]

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This basically shows how bad a map it is for Democrats in that I’m projecting Republicans to gain anywhere from 4-7 seats.

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We get it Lear. You've posted your Republican-friendly predictions like a thousand times already. Posting your Senate + House predictions is about the only thing you seem to really enjoy doing here, which coincidentally is part of the reason some people think you're a concern troll. I'm not sure if anyone has posted about their predictions as much as you.

[Virginiá]

King Lear, we already have a Senate predictions/rank thread. Don't make a new thread every time you want to let Atlas know what you think about the 2018 elections.

- Merged into Wulfric's thread

[Virginiá]

That makes no sense that you rate Pennsylvania Lean Democratic, while all the other states around it are Safe Democratic. I also think you are overeating most of the Trump-state Democrats
This conflicts with my concern trolling. Why aren't you also concern trolling like me?

[Virginiá]

These 2018 Senate Ratings are ridiculous, how on earth do you believe Nevada and Arizona are leaning Democratic (Trump won Arizona and nearly won Nevada, while Nevada is represented by the relatively popular Dean Heller, Republicans are probably going to nominate Mcsally in Arizona who is a perfect fit for the state, making both states tough pickups for Democrats)? and how can Democrats be favored in 4 of the 5 double-digit Trump States LOL. As much as my 2018 Senate ratings (which I conveniently put in my Sig so everyone can see them), have been criticized for being “Hackish” and “Trollish”, at least their based largely on how the states voted in the last presidential election combined with the strength of the incumbents, while yours are just based on what you want to happen.

Why are you surprised that other people aren't Republican hacks?

This idea you have that Senate elections will always mirror the presidential results is just flat out wrong, and practically every 2 years we have a race that bucks the top of the ticket. For instance, Montana frequently votes Republican for president but historically has had far more Democratic Senators than Republicans in the past 100 years. Tester has already one two Senate elections now, so why would he lose in 2018 if he won in 2012 and 2006? I mean sure, it's possible, but he has a proven track record in a state that is relatively friendly to statewide Democrats. North Dakota Democrats also have a track record of winning Senate elections over the past generation+, yet you're acting like they don't. Manchin has a strong personal brand that has allowed him to win a couple statewide elections - why would that end now? Why would he be less likely to win reelection than when he shared the ballot with Obama?

It's like you don't put any effort into actually thinking about this.

[Virginiá]

King Lear, even Rob Port said the other day that many Republicans from ND have privately admitted that the race is trending away from them. You could make a case for Tossup, but rating it Likely R is ridiculous. Also, Montana isn't Lean R, no serious person in the state believes that.

I'm not sure that he will respond to you or even read your post. He is like a robotic concern troll. He just sends posts out into the void of digital space and moves on.

[Virginiá]

I just can't get over the fact that Trump single-handedly gave Democrats a shot at flipping the Senate. Think about it, even with him being an unpopular, deeply offensive president, Democrats still simply were too top-heavy in the Class I map. But what did Trump do for Democrats? He helped tank the popularity of two of his own incumbent Senators, although Flake probably did most of the damage to himself. Democrats never would have had a shot in Tennessee if it wasn't for Trump. Trump ruined the best opportunity for Republicans to lock in a long-term Senate majority in maybe decades.

The next time this class is up is 2024, and that will either be at the end of a 2nd Trump term, which would probably result in a wave election, or the reelection of a Democratic incumbent, which judging by how 2012 went, will probably not be too bad for Democrats. And this is all independent of whether you subscribe to TD's popular realignment theory, which would indicate a worse prognosis for Republicans.