The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[Virginiá]

The big question is if the same can and will be applied to a stronger economy. If economy will colapse it is for sure, but what if it will be just pretty good.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/05/private-payrolls-grew-263k-in-march-vs--185k-est-:-adp.html

Right now it probably does not matter much, but if this trend will keep on, I can see Trump benefitting from it.

He surely can. The incumbent party also enjoys the benefits of a good economy, even if they had nothing to do with it.  It's possible if Republicans/Trump get their act together and pass tax cuts and infrastructure spending, they could give a small, temporary boost to it as well. However, I personally still think the risk of some sort of recession over the next 4 years is considerable. The current economic expansion is getting close to historic levels. I know they don't just "die" of old age, so to speak, but the historical pattern is worrying.

[Virginiá]

I meant the magnitude of the fall, both relative and absolute. Obama started at 60-70% and felt to ~45%.  Trump started at 45% (that probably is his ceiling) and now he is at ~40%.

Maybe he never actually reaches the 20s, but does it matter? oscillating between 35% - 45%, with an average rating of around 40% is pretty bad, especially for a new president. Usually it takes a new president year(s) to get to this point, and that is because after so much time, voters feel let down or disillusioned with any number of things the president did or didn't do. Trump hasn't even reached that point yet, and I think to assume his base will never become disillusioned or upset with him is ridiculous. It wouldn't take too much of his base to break away in order to pull him down further.

I'd probably have to agree with you in that Trump likely won't experience a fall quite like Obama did, but I think he can fall somewhat further still. I'm thinking 30% is easily possible under the right conditions. Either way, ratings in the 30s is absolutely toxic to the Republican Party.

[Virginiá]

PPP:

Approve 43%
Disapprove 50%

Best question asked in this poll:

Which do you have a higher opinion of: United Airlines or Donald Trump?

United Airlines 42%
Donald Trump 40%
Not Sure 18%

Source

I wonder if this poll sheds some light on recent special elections. The enthusiasm gap is huge, but the actual generic ballot question is only giving Democrats a 6% lead. This sounds like a lot, but not so much after you consider that Democrats tend to underperform that poll. It's nothing like the 2006/2008 numbers.

My point being that recent special elections clearly show a lot of enthusiasm, which has helped narrow the gap, but enough of the public hasn't turned against Republicans yet to flip the possibly flip the House next year. Though, not to say that I don't think this poll can get to where we need by next October.

[Virginiá]

Gallup (April 21st)

42% (-1)
52% (+1)

[Virginiá]

Why are you so sure there is going to be a recession?

Clearly he has sinister plans for world domination, and a recession is how they begin.

But seriously, going without a recession until late 2020 would be a historical record. Even considering that expansions have gotten longer over the past few decades, it just doesn't seem likely that one won't happen prior to the next presidential election. I know these don't happen because of "old age" or something silly like that, but one still should respect the trends we have up to this point.

[Virginiá]

National right-to-work (for much less) legislation and an abolition of the federal minimum wage. Such has been a dream of the Corporate Right for several decades, and the Republicans now have the President and Congress of their dreams.

Meh, I'd dispute that. The GOP under Bush (2005-2007) had it better. Their dream Congress would have been one that a President Hillary Clinton would have delivered in the 2018 midterm, which combined with further gains + the presidency in 2020 would have given them a lot more power to push through their priorities.

As it stands now, it's easy to see the GOP being only minimally productive under Trump, especially if Democrats take back the House or at least make substantial gains in 2018.

[Virginiá]

Gallup (April 26th)

40% Approve (+1)
55% Disapprove (-1)

[Virginiá]

Gallup (May 2nd)

42% Approve (-/-)
52% Disapprove (-2)

[Virginiá]

Gallup (May 4th)

42% Approve (-/-)
52% Disapprove (-/-)

[Virginiá]

Gallup (May 6th)

40% Approve (-/-)
54% Disapprove (-/-)

[Virginiá]

Either way, unless this bill actually gets signed into law in some form that is somewhat as horrible as the House version, whatever effects it has on his approval ratings will likely be temporary and ultimately irrelevant. So far there doesn't seem to be any evidence that the threat of passage is enough to permanently peel away core supporters, so he'll just continue to hover around 40%, give or take.

Right now the only thing I believe that will bring Trump down to a new, lower baseline is time and a sustained inability to actually fix the primary problems his voters are facing, or some new major event like a recession. Eventually all these victories he fairly or unfairly claims will mean much less when people realize things aren't actually getting better for themselves. This may be a gentle slide downwards in approvals, and maybe it even takes longer than 1 term.

Who knows.

[Virginiá]

Gallup

42% ( -2) 40% (-2)
53% (-/-)

[Virginiá]

Gallup (May 11th)

41% Approve (+3)
54% Disapprove (-1)

[Virginiá]

Rassmussen Reports

44% Approve
56% Disapprove

-----------------------------------
27% Strongly Approve
46% who Strongly Disapprove

This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -19

Really bad for the President -- considering that the pollster is Rasmussen.

Just curious - do you happen to know what Obama's typical "strongly disapprove / approve" numbers were in 2010 & 2014?

Edit: I'd like to compare Gallup's, but from 2014, AP's Dec poll showed these sort of numbers for a 41% approve / 58% disapprove:

http://surveys.ap.org/data/GfK/AP-GfK_Poll_December_2014_Politics.pdf



It's not the best, but Obama did at times post similar "strongly disapprove" numbers, but for sure Trump seems to be bringing in much more consistent and sometimes larger strongly disapprove figures than Obama did, at least depending on what polls you use to make that judgement.

[Virginiá]

Gallup

Approve 38% (+-0)
Disapprove 57% (+-0)

You posted this literally as I was hitting enter on mine

[Virginiá]

Gallup (May 16th)

Approve 38% (-/-)
Disapprove 57% (-/-)

-

Surprised this wasn't posted yet here. Anyway, no change for 3 days in a row so far.

[Virginiá]

Gallup (May 17th)

Approve 38% (-/-)
Disapprove 56% (-1)