Maryland 2018

[Virginiá]

Quick search shows Ehrlich was not unpopular, but not overly popular in the months leading up to the 2006 midterms. It was somewhere between 47 - 53.

Meanwhile, Hogan seems to be constantly in the high-60s or low-70s. I'm not convinced he can be easily knocked off, and if he can, I imagine it would require an anti-Republican wave in 2018.

[Virginiá]

If Gov. Larry Hogan is re-elected in 2018, with his veto power what's the likelihood that the 6th congressional district in western Maryland be redrawn back to what it was before Democrats in the legislature gerrymandered it to include Montgomery County?  

It won't make a difference. Maryland is a 60% override state and Democrats already have a supermajority now, albeit a slightly slimmer one. Keeping in mind that Maryland holds legislative elections every 4 years during each midterm, meaning MD Democrats have been whittled down by 2 GOP midterm waves in a row. 2018 will likely restore their numbers in the State House to pre-2014 levels, if not more. That means veto overrides will be even easier. Unfortunately, Hogan will have no real power in the next round of redistricting.

Only way to prevent such a configuration is via lawsuit.

[Virginiá]

Democrats actually grew their numbers in 2010 and then they fell back to their pre-2010 levels in 2014. I think that if Hogan wins by 52%+ he could knock off a few more Democrats down the ballot. I don't know how many the GOP would need, but I would think that one of the chambers is doable.

The only remotely plausible option, imo, is the State House, and Republicans would need a net gain of 7 seats to just barely break the Democrats' supermajority.

Reducing Democrats to their smallest State House majority in over 80 years during a midterm of a most likely unpopular Trump presidency is a hell of an undertaking. It won't happen. My guess is that Democrats gain, as opinions of the incumbent president's party heavily influence state legislative races.

I think Hogan will probably win if he is still really popular, but more gains in the legislature seems highly unlikely.