Hillary hasn't even gotten out the Obama base. Just like in the Romney election, I was very clear to Romney supporters - "Obama is going to lose voters, but that doesn't mean that Romney is going to win. Romney still has to turn out the Republican base." Sure enough, that's exactly what happened. Romney lost voters from McCain and the Republicans lost even though Obama did much more poorly in 2012 than in 2008.
I see the same happening with Hillary. Hillary loses voters over Obama, and Trump loses because the GOP base refuses to vote for him.
Honestly, I don't see why Democrats are crowing about a demographic 'realignment' when the 2012 numbers were lower than the 2008 numbers.
I don't get what you mean. In terms of support gauged by polls, she is doing just fine with the Obama coalition. African American, Hispanic, non-white in general, Millennials, single women
(women in general actually) all have high support for her last I checked. She may do a little/a lot better or a little worse, but that's as expected.
Not
all elections are a straight up continuation of previous coalitions, either. If, say, Hillary were to lose support among African Americans relative to 2012, then chances are she will make it up with both increased turnout and support among Hispanic voters. It's possible Hillary locks in portions of other demographics and thus augments Obama's coalition, but we won't know that yet. Either way, my point is that turning out every last bit of Obama's coalition doesn't matter if Hillary makes her own contributions to said coalition and makes up for any losses.
As for the college-educated white realignment, I don't see how we can know for sure until we have several more elections to compare data from. However, a Democrat winning a majority of that demographic is very significant in its own regard and at least to me signifies something larger, as even LBJ didn't capture a majority of them. No Democrat has since at least the 50s.
