How many more national elections until Democratic fatigue? (user search)
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  How many more national elections until Democratic fatigue? (search mode)
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Question: How many more national elections until Democratic fatigue?
#1
2020
 
#2
2024
 
#3
2028
 
#4
2030
 
#5
2034
 
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Total Voters: 44

Author Topic: How many more national elections until Democratic fatigue?  (Read 2620 times)
Virginiá
Virginia
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« on: June 20, 2016, 12:48:18 PM »
« edited: June 20, 2016, 12:51:06 PM by Virginia »

It's not really possible to say right now if Democrats will face a Bush-like backlash any time soon. There were reasons behind that. Unpopular wars, Congressional scandals, then the Great Recession - it really added up after awhile. It's also possible that the next Republican is another screw up, or that Clinton has a very rough 4 years and ends up being a one term president.

However, I am wondering what you mean about fatigue - Do you mean the public desires a Republican president at that time, or that the public's political leanings begin to shift long-term towards Republicans? Because if it is the latter, that could take a while yet. Republican dominance at the presidential level arguably started with Eisenhower all the way to Bush41. People who grew up during this 40 year time span have leaned Republican in their voting patterns more often than not, some times by large margins. So it's possible that Democrats don't fall out of favor until 2028 - 2032. Such long periods of favorability have definitely happened more than once in American history. When you factor in the rate of minority growth and their substantial + reliable Democratic leanings, Republicans could get locked out for a long time. That is, unless they can make inroads among those demographics, which seems unlikely right now.

Also worth noting that Republicans will face their own 1994 at the Congressional level most likely within the next 10 - 15 years, tops. Their massive rejection by the Millennial generation (and latter part of GenX) will catch up to them by the time these people begin to dominate the 25 - 55 year age brackets. Given the GOP's current standing, it seems unlikely that they will turn Gen Z into a heavy Republican-leaning voter group, so it will take Republicans many years more to begin substantially rebuilding their voter base. Though, that is just my speculation. No one truly knows yet what direction Gen Z will go in.
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Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,913
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW
« Reply #1 on: June 25, 2016, 09:33:41 PM »

Until the GOP comes up with a legitimate nominee.

People are tired of the Democrats, but they are also TERRIFIED of the Republicans with all the Trump bullsh**ttery.

Judging by the number of people not affiliating with a party these days, I'd say they are sick of both parties, but arguably Republicans more as 1) Democrats almost consistently have a registration or "leans" advantage, and 2) the public sides with Democrats on many important issues

The most critical emerging voter blocs in this country are definitely not going to bed hoping for a Republican savior. Republican success over the next 4 - 6 years is inevitably going to come down to how much hate and faux scandals they can put together against Clinton (just like they did for Barry) and how many geriatrics they can wheel out to the polling booths.
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