How will these states vote in comparison to the national average? (user search)
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  How will these states vote in comparison to the national average? (search mode)
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Author Topic: How will these states vote in comparison to the national average?  (Read 804 times)
Virginiá
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« on: June 08, 2016, 03:56:46 PM »

We're talking Florida, not New Mexico, Arizona, or Nevada. In the latter states, Hispanics are Mexican-Americans who are (supposedly) heavily anti-Trump. In Florida, Hispanics are more diverse, and some have historically supported GOP candidates (e.g. Cubans). Factor in Trump's ties to the state and his performance in the primary, there arises no reason to think that his presence alone will change a 40 year trend.

Florida is not much whiter than Nevada (55.8% vs 51.5%, per Census 2014 projections). Further, Florida has twice as many African Americans. Cubans and the overall Floridian Hispanic electorate have been realigning towards Democrats since 2008, and election results and party registration statistics since then confirm that. Younger Cubans just aren't staunch Republicans like their elders. Polls among FL Hispanics show dismal numbers for Trump, and if they are to be believed, Democrats could see record support from them this year. Perhaps if Republicans had voted to nominate Jeb or Rubio, we'd be singing a very different tune here.

Also, primary results really aren't predictive of general election results. There is little to no correlation. As for your 40-year trend, sure, but since the late 90s, the voting patterns in FL even up to now suggest a different trend is underway.
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