Surprise: Trump driving Asians into the Democratic Party at breakneck speed

[Virginiá]

Wrrrrrong!

California: TRUMP vs Hillary. SurveyUSA 5/19-5/22. 1383 LV.

https://cbssanfran.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/survey_usa_president_senate_052316.pdf

TRUMP 38% | Hillary 52% (Page 5) Total 1383 LV.

Hispanic(429 LV): TRUMP 35% | Hillary 51%
Asian(207 LV) : TRUMP 40% | Hillary 49%

Yes...because a s[inks]tty and small sample that is 15% Asian in one state - in one poll - is a better indicator of the situation than a detailed national survey dedicated to studying and surveying accurately the group it is measuring. That's like making the argument that national poll from Rasmussen that shows a given number for Latinos is a better indicator of the situation than a poll from Latino Decisions.

To be fair, this type of behavior is the essence of StatesPoll's being: Create a narrative and then cherry pick polls that help confirm said narrative while discarding any that cast doubt.

[Virginiá]

Asians may be at 5% in Virginia, however, when you take into account their voter participation share, it's likely in the 4% range, which in any event, does not make the biggest of differences if the breakdown is 76/24 (Romney) or 90/10 in a Trump "nightmare" scenario.

Around the fringes, it does not matter much mathematically.

Yes, except for the fact that VA is likely to be one of the closest/tipping point states. So anything that shifts the margins, even a fraction of percentage points, has a disproportionate impact on the overall electoral college outcome. That's true whether it's the Asian vote or McAuliffe's reforms to felon disenfranchisement.

At the end of the day, if the Dems are lucky, you're probably talking between 10K and 20K of a total vote shift. And if you look at that study to begin with, it seems like the Asian number voting Republican will between 20-35%. The rest of the "shift" is Indies identifying with the Democrats. Too much is being made about a voting block that's really too small to make that much of an impact.

See, in the context of this one election, what you're saying makes sense, but when I look at it, I see long-term consequences and these numbers are just a manifestation of the GOP's inability to bring in new voters to replace the ones they are losing (strongly Republican silent generation voters). Republicans have lost almost the entire non-white vote at this point, and contrary to what 2012 may suggest, they haven't made enough progress with whites (their only real base) to make up for the losses they are incurring due to non-white voter growth and more Democratic Millennials taking up more and more of the electorate. You guys are getting gutted and it's like your party is indifferent or incapable of addressing this.

Just another demographic that looks to be voting 70%+ Democratic and likely very difficult for Republicans to claw back support from. This adds up when put together with other groups.