UT-Dan Jones & Associates: Trump loses to both Clinton and Sanders

[Virginiá]

If the Clinton machine legitimately thinks Utah is a viable target this summer/fall, then we will see her put resources into that state. Given that they do lots of polling and have other sources of information on this, them contesting the state would be a pretty damning sign imo.

[Virginiá]

So, he will be in a unique position to win the EC and lose the PV badly.

Honestly, that is a real stretch. The kind of PV margins you are probably talking about would be unprecedented in combination with an EV win. The popular vote can deviate a bit but in general it does stay at least somewhat close to EV outcomes. And before anyone says "this election cycle has been so far out of the norm that anything is possible!", it's worth noting that there are limits and using that blanket excuse is a bad argument.

I sure as hell wouldn't bank on such an outcome.

[Virginiá]

Virginia, we know that his base are white low education males and working class voters (whites and others). These are disproportionally concentrated in PA, MI and OH. I don't see why he couldn't win there by small margins and yet lose elsewhere by a lot bigger margins and lose the PV, but win the EV.

Right, but him over-performing with certain groups in certain areas will also be balanced out by Clinton over-performing with groups that repudiate Trump. This will bring more balance to the PV. Trump, or really most plausible candidates at that, generally cannot over-perform so significantly as to create a large lopsided PV/EV result.

But I'll be clear - If this outcome prediction in UT bears fruit, then there isn't any reason that Trump couldn't theoretically pull a similar win somewhere else. I will give you that, but I'm just saying that to create a large deviation from PV/EV result is highly unlikely.