Hispanic Romney Voters and 2016

[Virginiá]

Maybe. But what if more Hispanics vote in 2016 then did in 2012? That could make that 27% into 22%.

Yeah, this is the correct answer. Unless you count Asian voters (which are still such a relatively small segment of the voting bloc that their numbers are bound to explode from cycle to cycle), Latinos are the fastest growing segment of actual voting bloc and population. Trump will likely cause magical things to happen with regards to Latino turnout; a 2-point increase in their share of the electorate fueled by fear of Trump could be enough to add 2-3 points to the overall Latino Democratic share of the vote (although it might also be a backstop to any shifts away from a non-Obama candidate).

Another way to look at it is this: as the Latino share of the electorate grows, Democrats can afford to lose support among them. Getting 70% of the Latino vote when they comprise 10% of the electorate has the same impact (margin-wise; nominal) as getting 66% of the Latino vote when they comprise 12% of the electorate; 63% at 15% of the electorate, and so forth.

Quoting because this is good stuff.

Also, the premise of this argument that somehow Trump can't lose anymore than Romney did is so flawed. This isn't just about immigration now, it is about common decency and his offensive nature. He has threatened them with deportation - A lot of these people have family and friends who are undocumented, or know people in their community that they don't want deported for no reason other than to please a bunch of white people. On top of this, all this talk about walls and deporting 11 million people is pitting white people against Hispanics because Trump is effectively scapegoating Hispanics for the economic problems of whites. The animosity he is stirring up is going to persist beyond this election and will definitely manifest itself in the daily life of these people.

I'm sorry, but don't be surprised here if he bottoms out around 15% - 18%, or perhaps even lower. The idea that he will maintain Romney numbers is ridiculous. The two are hardly the same and Trump has made scapegoating undocumented immigrants the centerpiece of his campaign, whereas Romney just stuck to a specific policy and made some poor comments from time to time. Trump does this on a regular basis as part of strategy, and with great joy.

Looking back at how little (relative to now) it took for Obama to get 71% of their vote in 2012 and then comparing it to this cycle, combined with Hispanics liking Clinton, it's hard to see how she won't easily score 80%+ of their vote, combined with significantly increased turnout.

[Virginiá]

You're making the mistake (which many others have made) that immigration is the reason Hispanics won't vote Republican; it's not.

Again, Romney's 27% is near the Republican's average among Hispanics since 1980. That means he did just as well as other Republicans who did not promote self-deportation did. Therefore, even if Romney supported a pathway to citizenship or amnesty from the start, there is no evidence suggesting he would have done better.

......

It's not immigration!!!!

Oh, I know that. There is a reason Democratic performance among Hispanics has been consistently 60%+ since as long as they have been polled/monitored. Education, healthcare and other policies play big factors in guaranteeing Democrats that 60% - 65%.

However, as I was trying to say, Trump has made deporting 11 million people and building a wall the main premise of his campaign. That says a lot, and the perception among a lot of Hispanics is a full-on attack on their community. I live in FL and I do live near quite a lot of Hispanics/interact with them very often. The perception here is absolutely toxic for the reasons I specified. He's highly offensive and rude. There are just so many problems with him and his campaign that justify his 80%+ unfavorable rating among Hispanics.

It's also been said, somewhat correctly I think, that Republicans can maintain a stricter immigration policy and still get Hispanic votes, such as in Texas. The key is not going at that voting bloc with machine guns blazing while calling them rapists and threatening to deport 11 million people (aka, a lot of people they know, or even their family members).

I don't get why this isn't obvious.