Pennsylvania in 2016 (user search)
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Author Topic: Pennsylvania in 2016  (Read 3933 times)
Virginiá
Virginia
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Posts: 18,909
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Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

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« on: February 27, 2016, 03:44:06 PM »
« edited: February 27, 2016, 03:45:58 PM by Virginia »

Because there's literally no evidence to suggest that it will?

It's funny because regardless, PA has gone Democratic for an entire generation now. Democrats scored 10%+ margin in 2008, which shows they have a high ceiling there, yet Republicans can't even get 1 win in something like 25 years. Not to mention 1988's GOP winning margin was < 2%

This is the kind of state where unless there are some substantial, blatantly obvious pro-GOP trends, that it is best to assume it will just go Democratic but there is at least a marginal chance it won't. With Trump on the ticket, they would be lucky if their US House delegation didn't get eviscerated as they lose the state at the presidential level.
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Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
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*****
Posts: 18,909
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW
« Reply #1 on: March 11, 2016, 11:27:16 AM »

Okay, then how can the GOP ever win another election again?

Formulate policy that appeals to both the younger generation(s) and non-white voters. It's the GOP's fault that they are losing out on everyone but older whites. They refuse to adjust with the times and have alienated almost all non-white voters so efficiently you'd think it was their plan all along.

They just won't accept the reality of their situation and eventually it'll cost them big. Demographic and generational trends are pretty well understood and the data has been around for years, so they have no excuse here.
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Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,909
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW
« Reply #2 on: March 14, 2016, 01:07:23 PM »

Wait another 10-20 years. Eventually the Democrats will wear out their welcome. There's also data suggesting that the post-Millennial generation (born in 1996 or afterward) is already trending more conservative than the Millennials, and it's likely that Millennials themselves will become more conservative after a while, considering it's very difficult to be more liberal than they already are. It could happen in 10 years, or it could happen in 20 years, but it will happen.

Well it's certainly a possibility that they could become a little more conservative as they age, that doesn't necessarily mean they will begin voting Republican, either. Remember, older Republicans who went through over a decade of failed Bush wars and a collapsed economy under his watch didn't really turn against him for longer than 4 years. You'd be surprised how deep party loyalties can run. Especially when the other party is so ideologically different and even counter to their beliefs.

Regarding how liberal Millennials are - Yes, and it's because of that that Democrats could actually lose some of them and still come out on top because of just how Democratic-leaning they are. If their party loyalties stick, which it looks like they are so far, then they can lose some and still maintain strong majorities throughout the country in many places.
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Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,909
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW
« Reply #3 on: April 16, 2016, 11:59:46 AM »

Onorato and Sestak were awful candidates? One lost by ten points to Corbett, and the other by two points to Toomey.

I imagine he was talking about presidential races (I know I was). All things considered, Sestak's performance in 2010 was respectable considering how massive the 2010 wave was. He barely lost during a year where Democrats had a nuke dropped on their majorities across the country.

At any rate, the dynamics between state and presidential races is different.
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