Influence of Hispanic in 2016 Election is quite exaggerated.

[Virginiá]

yes. I'd predict black turn out gonna drop to 60%(as 2004) from 66%(2012).
because there is no black candidates in democrat in 2016.

Based on what? The African American vote was trending upwards before Obama. It's highly unlikely that turnout would collapse like this just because Obama is no longer on the ballot. Studies have shown that people who actually do end up voting are more likely to vote again. Do I think turnout will drop? Yes, but not by more than 1% - 2%. It's possible that AA turnout could  keep dropping if it was only due to Obama, but it will not plunge 6% within the span of 4 years.

This wishful thinking will only hurt Republicans in 2016, but as a Democrat, I welcome this. After all, it worked so well for Romney.

[Virginiá]

I really don't think the AA vote will drop by much. Clinton is very popular/loved by African Americans.

I also think female turnout will increase quite a bit due to the historic nature of having the first female president.

I know Bill clinton is loved by AA. But Hillary? I don't think so that much.

Honestly, this is irrelevant right now. Virtually any Democrat starts with about 60% of the Hispanic vote. Trump's rhetoric/plans on immigration and his strategy to make immigration central to this election is definitely going to drive up turnout and further push remaining GOP Hispanics away from the party. If it was just about immigration reform and nothing else, I could see less effect but Trump's platform has been literally to round up all undocumented workers and deport them. One of the the most efficient ways to drive up turnout among a demographic is to make central to your campaign a promise to deport millions of people from that demographic. It doesn't matter if Trump is the nominee or not, because he has been on air for almost 6 months now yelling about a wall and to deport, deport, deport.  This has already cornered other candidates and painted the GOP as very unfriendly to Hispanics.

Hispanic voters were central to Obama's wins in Florida in 2008 and 2012, and with Clinton likely to enjoy more of the white vote and probably (at least) 2008-levels of Hispanic support. With Florida off the map for the GOP, they have no realistic path to victory. That is hardly exaggerated. The only exception to this I can see is Rubio winning the nomination and garnering enough Hispanic/Cuban support to take the state.

StatesPoll, your predictions are incredibly narrow-minded and reek of confirmation bias. It reminds me of die-hard Trump supporters who mindlessly declare he will attain Reagan (84)-levels of white support while conveniently neglecting to consider all the white voters he will alienate with his banter and divisive plans. In this case, I believe you have underestimated the influence Hispanics have in key states like Florida, Colorado and so on. But more so, you seem to have completely neglected to consider what effect Trump is going to have on this electorate and the topic of immigration as well.