Most Democratic Gerrymander possible (user search)
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  Most Democratic Gerrymander possible (search mode)
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Author Topic: Most Democratic Gerrymander possible  (Read 2204 times)
Virginiá
Virginia
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« on: January 11, 2016, 12:20:28 PM »
« edited: January 11, 2016, 12:24:07 PM by Virginia »

The rate things are going in CA, and the Pub party nationally, the Pubs may garner in due course but 4 seats in CA without needing to gerrymander. Tongue

Looking at the party strength in California over the years, Republicans have almost consistently been bleeding House seats for decades now (or simply not winning any of the newly apportioned seats). An extra 10 seats just from California alone would be wonderful for Democrats.

Is this happening because conservatives are leaving the state and/or Democratic voters are spreading out from the Cali urban centers? Or maybe the Republican voters there are just way less conservative then the party as a whole and are switching over?
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Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,916
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW
« Reply #1 on: January 11, 2016, 01:08:59 PM »

White CA voters have tended to be less religious for a long time, while also being more into self expression. It's socially anomic atmosphere, and materialistic (even hedonistic) culture in many places (think LA and Orange County in particular), tends to cause things to go that way. Combine that with the white working class leaving, the labor-management divide waning away to next to nothing (that drove many socially liberal minded executive types into the Pub party), and the industrial base being more knowledge based, with aerospace going away largely, and the Hispanic percentage steadily increasing, and now the Asian (who don't take too well in general to the vibe of Evangelical Christianity), and you have a recipe for Pub disaster.

Interesting. Sounds like a response to some of the structural deficiencies of the modern GOP.

I went over some of the GOP's California CDs, and 39th looks like it has some potential, 36th has a R+1 PVI but a Democratic Rep and its voting history does suggest it's likely to be more Democratic than not until 2022. Given the demographics of the 25th district (assuming Wiki is right) and past election results, this is a flip just waiting to happen. 21st is a Republican-held Democratic-leaning seat, so incumbency is their savior there I guess. The 10th district is yet another one on a knife's edge

45th also looks like it has some future potential, but not before the next redistricting and who knows what it will be then.

I'm actually quite surprised how precarious the situation is with their remaining seats in this state. I thought they had already basically hit rock bottom, but obviously there is a ways to go yet.
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