Pennsylvania Congressional Races

[socaldem]

What about PA-03?

Rep. English has underperformed against his previous opponent in the last two elections, an unknown gadfly.  The district is definitely competitive and has strong Democratic roots and though English is fairly moderate and was even a potential RNCC chair, he doesn't really strike me as the best campaigner or most able politician.

Obama probably won't have coattails but I don't expect him to do any worse than John Kerry in the district.

Democrats have a decent candidate in the well-connected potential self-funder Kathy Dahlkemper, who it seems to me would probably have good appeal to disaffected Clinton supporters who may not come home to Obama.

I think the PA delegation is most likely to stay the same as it is now.  I think that the most likely change is, in fact, a PA-03 upset followed by a Hart comeback in PA-04 and the defeat of Chris Carney in PA-10.  I don't see Gerlach losing in 2008 to a second-rate candidate after having survived several vigorous well-funded challenges unless there is a major Obama landslide.  Theoretically Rep. Tim Murphy may also be vulnerable in PA-18 if his personal scandals escalate and if there is a landslide. 

Reps. Patrick Murphy in PA-08 and Joe Sestak in PA-06 may not win by the largest of margins and may, in fact, have closer races than Gerlach or Tim Murphy.  However, in my opinion, there is less chance that they will lose their races than the above GOP incumbents and barring personal scandal or major gaffes by these two incumbent Democrats, I consider their reelection a fait accompli at this point.

Hart and the incumbent GOPers, ultimately will have their prospects clouded by the fact that the RNCC is severely underfunded compared to the DCCC.  That factor also essentially dooms the already lackluster candidates in PA-06, PA-08, and possibly PA-10, though, as mentioned above, the GOP nature of the district means that an upset of the freshman Democrat there can not be entirely ruled out at this point.