Most likely chamber to flip? (user search)
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  Most likely chamber to flip? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Most likely chamber to flip?  (Read 8659 times)
socaldem
skolodji
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,040


« on: April 25, 2008, 02:45:44 AM »

California's legislature, of course, is going to continue to be solidly Democratic for the forseeable future...

Notably, there will be a state senate recall election on June 3, 2008 against GOP State Senator Jeff Denham for the Merced/Monterey County based SD12, a big farming area with a large Latino population.  The voter registration there tilts slightly to the Dems but voters there certainly are more conservative than most Californians. 

The voters will get to vote yes or no on the recall.  They would theroretically, then, get to choose from among replacement candidates but only former Assemblyman and Monterey County Supervisor Simon Salinas is on the ballot, so if Denham is recalled, he'd be the new state senator.

In the senate Democrats currently lead 25-15 and in the House 48-32.

Other than the SD12 recall, the only other competitive race is Santa Barbara-based SD19, featuring a contest between ex-state assemblymembers Hannah Beth-Jackson, a strident progressive who until recently headed Speak Out California and wild-eyed conservative Tony Strickland. The current state senator Tom McClintock, who has repeatedly shown a masochistic desire to be defeated by Democrats in attempts at statewide office, is carpet-bagging hundreds of miles away in the Sierras to try to succeed scandal-plagued John Doolittle in congress in CA-04.

If Democrats win both SD12 and the recall they will have enough votes to pass a budget, which, in CA's crazy system requires a 2/3 majority.  The only semi-moderate GOPer in the senate Abel Maldonado has the good fortune of running unopposed for reelection.

In the state house, Democrats also have a chance to pick up as many as three seats.  I don't really see many opportunities for the GOP there either.
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