AL-2: Democrats score recruitment coup with Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright

[socaldem]

Note that this district's black population is about 30%.  With Obama as the nominee, black voters could make up even more of the electorate.

Bobby Bright is a solid candidate.  Meanwhile, the GOP field leaves something to be desired.  I think Sen. Harri Ann Smith has an advantage for the GOP because she has a base in the wiregrass portion of the district whereas the other candidates are from the Montgomery region. 

Against Harri Ann Smith, Bright would probably be able to combine strong Montgomery-area support with black votes and a decent showing in Wiregrass to win.

I would describe the district as lean GOP and possibly only a slight lean at this point.

[socaldem]

Note that this district's black population is about 30%.  With Obama as the nominee, black voters could make up even more of the electorate.

Bobby Bright is a solid candidate.  Meanwhile, the GOP field leaves something to be desired.  I think Sen. Harri Ann Smith has an advantage for the GOP because she has a base in the wiregrass portion of the district whereas the other candidates are from the Montgomery region. 

Against Harri Ann Smith, Bright would probably be able to combine strong Montgomery-area support with black votes and a decent showing in Wiregrass to win.

I would describe the district as lean GOP and possibly only a slight lean at this point.

Please, I can guarentee you that Harri Ann Smith will be a member of the 111th Congress.

If Harri Ann Smith is the GOP nominee, Bright will have a better chance than against the others.  Word is she's somewhat of a dim bold.  Bright, meanwhile, is a very experienced politician who will be able to take advantage of the regional cleavage with her as the GOP nominee. 

Montgomery area white vote + black vote = congressman Bobby Bright.

[socaldem]

If he's so conservative he could just as easily run as a Republican (which he would have to be to win in this district anyway), then I don't want him. We already have a fairly safe House majority, nothing is gained by padding it with more conservatives, we now need to work on a PROGRESSIVE majority so the House can actually get things done, adding a bunch more conservative Democrats to create a House similar to the one from 93-95 accomplishes nothing.

I just hope he doesn't turn into another Rep. Rodney Alexander.  Alexander won in a December 2002 run-off in a demographically similar district.  (I called that win, btw.)  Shortly after winning, of course, he switched parties.  Oh well.  Sucks to be him--now he's stuck in the minority!

The DCCC wasnt too happy about that and actually sued Rep. Alexander.  I'm guessing the DCCC has assurances from Bright that he won't pull a similar maneuver and, besides, with Dems set to keep the majority for at least 6-10 years, I don't see any incentive.