This is why Walz is favored against any candidate:
Compare that to the 2004 map and then take these into account:
-Look at the results in Blue Earth and Nicollet. Walz basically has a rock star following here, and his performance in the area was absolutely jawdropping. He even outpolled Klobuchar. With these type of numbers he has a far more solid base than any Republican.
-He carried Olmsted County. This is the home of Rochester, a former GOP stronghold and Gutknecht's home county. But it's trending our way, and Walz winning in his entrenched incumbent's opponent's political base is quite the acheivement. A Republican needs a strong showing in Olmsted to win the district, and it'll be very difficult to do that against Walz.
-Look at the numbers in Freeborn and Mower Counties. Walz won Freeborn with 57% and Mower with 62%. Kerry got 55% in Freeborn and 61% in Mower. That swing is quite an underperformance. Freeborn and Mower are both heavily Democratic, but also pro-incumbent. As an incumbent Democrat, Walz should greatly overperform in both. For example the State Senate district that contains both voted about 57% for Kerry, but the one-term incumbent, who only beat the Republican by 11 votes in 2002, won with 68%.
Basically, even if all the other traditionally Republican counties Walz won return to Republicanism in 2008, it still won't be enough to overcome his strong base.
Hmm, do you think Walz' performance in Olmstead was helped much by the railroad issue? I see that he's made news on that front recently, too.
Also, didn't the dems pick up some state house districts in Rochester?
Where, by the way, is the MN LG's former state house district?
