Full results...(party names are those used by the IECI)
Unified Iraqi Coalition 5,021mio 41.2% 109+19
Kurdistani Gathering 2,642 mio 21.7% 43+10
Tawafoq Iraqi Front 1,840 mio 15.1% 37+7 (aka Accord Front)
National Iraqi List 977K 8.0% 21+4
Hewar National Iraqi Front 500K 4.1% 9+2 (aka National Dialogue Front)
Islamic Union of Kurdistan 158K 1.3% 4+1
Progressives 145K 1.2% 1+1 (can someone tell me who these guys are? Their votes come from Shi'a areas)
Liberation & Reconciliation Gathering 130K 1.1% 3+0
Iraqi Turkuman Front 88K 0.7% 1+0
Al Rafedeen List 47K 0.4% 0+1 (Christians)
Iraqi National Congress 34K 0.3% 0+0
Mithal Al Aloosi List for Iraqi Nation 32K 0.3% 1+0
(3 no-seats, 0.2% parties)
Al Ezediah Movement for Progressing & Reform 22K 0.2 1+0 (Yezidis. Very interesting religious minority)
The progressives, as it turns out are a Sadr-affiliated extremist Shi'a party... they're coalitoning with uia....
Incidentally, its gratifying to see that the seat break-down (for the regions) that I calculated way back in December, using the complicated electoral formula provided on the electoral comission website is almost exactly how the final results turned out. The only change is that the UIA gave up a seat to the Sunnis in Baghdad...whether this is a concession to Sunni protests (some Sunni claim they should have a majority of Baghdad seats because their population is so obviously more than 20% and God forbid that the Kurds, of all people, would have greater representation than Arab sunni...) or a result of a more accurate vote count is unclear..
Well, I obviously have too much time on my hands...
Using the guidelines provided by the Iraq website, I crunched the numbers and came up with the following seat allocation (using the election data up now as if it were finalized)... in any case, this is probably a really good estimate of how the regional seats will be distributed....
Of 230 seats distributed among the provinces:
United Iraqi Coalition (religious shiite, Sistani, Sadr, Jafari et al): 109 seats
Iraq List (secular shiite, Allawi et al): 21
Kurds: 47
Kurdish Gathering: 43
Islamic Union of Kurdistan: 4
Sunnis: 44
Tawafoq Iraq Front (sunni): 35
Hewar Iraq Front (sunni): 9
Progressives:2
Peace and Reconciliation: 3
Others: 3
Since I didn't tally up the grand totals for each party nationwide and I don't quite know how the at-large seats are distributed, I didn't even try to calculate those.
Iraq has a very strange PR electoral system within each province. Whereas in other countries where there are lots of third parties, the seats are distributed among the top vote getters by the percentage of the seated-party vote, in Iraq, the extra seats are distributed to parties with the "largest remainders," a procedure that allows small parties to have greater representation.
In any case, it looks like the religious shiite party will be just short of a majority based on the provincial tally. Their success in the at-large vote may be greater, though, because of the better turn-out in shiite regions than in still tumultuous sunni areas... though, of course, sunni turn-out was much higher than last time.
I must say, though, that the Iraqi electoral system has been carefully designed to try to bring some ethnic balance to Iraq. That appears to have happened... its just that the secular faction within shiite has proved weaker than expected.
