Bernie Sanders v. Dr. Ben Carson
While Carson has reasonable positive ratings, right now, were he to win the nomination, he is just so far out of the mainstream and has made so many gaffes that he will have a hard time with a lot of voters.
While Sanders is definitely pretty far to the left, his convictions will not be appalling to most Americans. He could have some trouble with suburbanites but they--particularly Northern liberals--will face a tough choice if their other option is Ben Carson.
Sanders, meanwhile, would have broad appeal to working class whites, particularly old labour Democrats in the upper midwest and in ancestrally Democratic rural areas. I think that these ties help him win Ohio, Iowa, Montana, and run up margins in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and New England. I think Florida would be close but Sanders is a better fit for the state than Carson.
I think Carson will get a bump with African-American voters, particularly in the deep South, which will amount to increasing his margins in already GOP states. I think his strengthened support with African-Americans and Sanders' weakness with white (non Northeastern) suburbanites might give Carson the ability to flip Virginia.
