Overall gay marriage support in the Senate: with map!

[socaldem]

House GOPers whose districts likely favor gay marriage and may be vulnerable to a challenge or may need to change their positions:

*May be open to eventually adjust position

Rep. Jeff Denham R-CA-10
Rep. Buck Mckeon R-CA-25
Rep. Ed Royce R-CA-39*
Rep. John Campbell R-CA-45*
Rep. Dana Rohrabacher R-CA-48*
Rep. Darrell Issa R-CA-49*

Rep. Bill Young R-FL-13*

Rep. Tom Latham R-IA-03*

Rep. Robert Holtgren R-IL-14

Rep. John Kline R-MN-02
Rep. Eric Paulsen R-MN-03*

Rep. Justin Amash R-MI-03
Rep. Fred Upton R-MI-06*
Rep. Tim Walberg R-MI-07
Rep. Mike Rogers R-MI-08*
Rep. Kerry Bentivolio R-MI-11

Rep. Lee Terry R-NE-02*

Rep. Joe Heck R-NV-02

Rep. Frank Lobiondo R-NJ-02*
Rep. John Runyan R-NJ-03
Rep. Chris Smith, R-NJ-04*
Rep. Scott Garrett R-NJ-05
Rep. Leonard Lance R-NJ-07
Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen R-NJ-11*

Rep. Peter King R-NY-02*
Rep. Mike Grimm R-NY-11
Rep. Chris Gibson R-NY-19*
Rep. Tom Reed R-NY-23*

Rep. Steve Chabot R-OH-01
Rep. Mike Turner R-OH-10*
Rep. Jim Renacci R-OH-16
Rep. Dave Joyce R-OH-14

Rep. Jim Gerlach R-PA-06*
Rep. Pat Meehan R-PA-07*
Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick R-PA-08

Rep. Frank Wolf VA-10*

Rep. Jaime Herrera-Beutler R-WA-03*
Rep. Cathy McMorris-Rogers R-WA-05
Rep. Dave Reichert R-WA-08*

Rep. Paul Ryan R-WI-01
Rep. Reed Ribble R-WI-07

Republican Challenger for gay marriage

Carl DeMaio R-CA-52

Bolded districts are likely already in favor of gay marriage.

The issue has been such a big one in California over the last few years and the gays have won on the issue. Polls show that the state is now 60% in favor of gay marriage and it is an issue that can be used aggressively against suburban GOPers in Orange, San Diego, Los Angeles, and Riverside counties as a wedge issue by dems in normally Republican areas.

Ditto in New York, New England (though no congresscritters there!), Washington, and, to some extent, the Upper Midwest.

[socaldem]

Rep. Bill Young R-FL-13*

The district does favor SSM, Young will most certainly not be changing his position and does not need to do so, and is just as likely to be knocked out of his seat by an asteroid impact as by a challenger. I think you might be overestimating how much of a wedge issue this is.

LOL...this seat would more likely be a target in an open seat situation. I didn't think that Bill Young was really a culture warrior but given his age, he probably is wary of evolution on anything.

[socaldem]

If Kline or Paulsen cracked, it'll be the sign of the deluge.  Not that I think it's impossible.  But nationwide support for gay marriage would be like above 60% or something.

You're right. I though Paulsen was somewhat moderate but he even voted against DADT! The seats definitely need to be targets--I want a MN clean sweep!

[socaldem]

Rep. Bill Young R-FL-13*

The district does favor SSM, Young will most certainly not be changing his position and does not need to do so, and is just as likely to be knocked out of his seat by an asteroid impact as by a challenger. I think you might be overestimating how much of a wedge issue this is.

As to the value of the issue ass a wedge, it varies by state but in California and New York, being anti-gay marriage is just toxic and Dems need to take advantage of the situation if they have any hope of re-taking the house.

It could be really interesting to see the issue played in the Orange County districts.

[socaldem]

Cool maps!

I don't see Nebraska coming around in 2016...Texas may be close or pro-marriage by then, though, given that Latinos tend to be somewhat supportive and that gay marriage is probably okay with a growing number of suburban GOPers...

I have a hard time believing places like Oklahoma and Kentucky would be okay with gay marriage--even in 2020. I think there might be a stubborn group who opposes gay marriage just to stick it to the elite types on the coasts...

I think Georgia will definitely flip by 2020 at least given the growth in Metro Atlanta, which is a very gay city.

This doesn't really belong in there, but Nate extrapolated some numbers about how gay marriage support has evolved/will evolve by State. I wasn't sure where to put it.


2008:

2012:

2016:

2020:

Honestly, even I have a hard time believing Oklahoma and Wyoming will support it by 2020... Nonetheless, that's pretty promising.

[socaldem]

Bump...we are now at 50 bonafide supporters for gay marriage equality in the U.S. senate.

Wow.

Meanwhile, some hardline GOPers like Rand Paul and Jeff Flake have started to get squishy on the subject...more and more GOPers are starting to use the federalism cop-out, preferring to leave the issue up to the states.

DOMA repeal would pass the senate, and I doubt there are even enough votes to sustain a filibuster against repeal at this point.

On to the House...

I figured this effortpost deserved its own thread


Democrats:
48 Supporters
6 Opponents (Carper, Donnelly, Manchin, Heitkamp, Johnson, Nelson, Pryor)
31 Ambiguous (Casey, Hagan, Landrieu)

Republicans:
12 Supporter (Kirk, Portman)
42 41 Opponents
2 Ambiguous (Collins, Murkowski, Kirk)

Notes:

• I counted Carper, Kaine, and Rockefeller as supporters; they haven't explicitly endorsed gay marriage, but have made statements that make their beliefs somewhat obvious (and all three signed onto an amicus brief arguing that DADT be overturned in full)
• Hagan and Tester both sound like they'd be obvious supporters of gay marriage if they didn't have reelection concerns
  
• Landrieu avoids making any statements on the issue at all costs is evolving!
  
• Casey looks to be in the middle of an "evolution" on the issue and is clearly hoping the Supreme Court solves everything so he won't have to make any difficult votes
• Donnelly sounds like he's beginning an "evolution" of his own
• Heitkamp would probably support gay marriage if she was from a liberal state; the other five Democratic opponents appear to genuinely oppose it on principle

Also here's a map!

30% shade means one Senator from the state has an ambiguous position. Gray states have one Senator in support and one opposed.

UPDATE: Included Tester.