absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[StatesPoll]

 
wow

Republican surge in Nevada. Early Voting 2nd week (11/2 9AM)
http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555
In Person: DEM 39.89%  REP 37.79% Other 22.32%

Now Nevada=Likely TRUMP

[StatesPoll]

wow

Republican surge in Nevada. Early Voting 2nd week (11/2 9AM)
http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555
In Person: DEM 39.89%  REP 37.79% Other 22.32%

Now Nevada=Likely TRUMP

Go away troll.

I'm a troll becuz wrote the facts? amazing red avatar!

[StatesPoll]

wow

Republican surge in Nevada. Early Voting 2nd week (11/2 9AM)
http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555
In Person: DEM 39.89%  REP 37.79% Other 22.32%

Now Nevada=Likely TRUMP

Statespoll, Thank you for your contributions!! All we ever see is Liberals posting on this forum and posting whatever someone is stating in their favor. They tell you to go away because your posting facts they dont like, I LOVE IT. Please keep me up to date with these EV states! I appreciate your efforts!

thx you! you are welcome.

in here red avatars are biased too much.
Early Voting in North Carolina, Black voter turnouts decreased by about 20~23%.
But Red Avatars are keep saying NC=lean Hillary lol

[StatesPoll]

wow

Republican surge in Nevada. Early Voting 2nd week (11/2 9AM)
http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555
In Person: DEM 39.89%  REP 37.79% Other 22.32%

Now Nevada=Likely TRUMP

Statespoll, Thank you for your contributions!! All we ever see is Liberals posting on this forum and posting whatever someone is stating in their favor. They tell you to go away because your posting facts they dont like, I LOVE IT. Please keep me up to date with these EV states! I appreciate your efforts!

Plus, I'd recommend to read this Thread
Red Avatars are happy because Hillary ahead +3% in YouGov National Poll, with D +21% skewed samples lol
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250666.0

[StatesPoll]

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html

NC Status as of 10/28

                         Clinton       Trump       Clinton     Trump
Already voted     686,000    462,000      56.7%     38.2% (18.5% gap)
Yet to vote        1,491,000   1,440,000    46.4%   44.8%
Total estimates   2,177,000   1,903,000   49.2%   43.0%

NC Status as of 10/30

                        Clinton      Trump       Clinton     Trump
Already voted     878,000   653,000      54.9%    40.8% (14.1% gap)
Yet to vote        1,316,000   1,256,000   46.3%    44.2%
Total estimates   2,194,000   1,909,000   49.4%   43.0%   

NC Status as of 11/2

                      Clinton       Trump          Clinton   Trump
Already voted   1,110,000   897,000      52.9%   42.7% (10.2% gap)
Yet to vote        1,094,000   1,045,000    45.7%   43.7%
Total estimates   2,203,000   1,941,000   49.1%   43.2%

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html
NYT says
These aren’t official results. They’re just estimates. If our polling is wrong, then our conclusions could be wrong as well.
These aren’t official results. They’re just estimates. If our polling is wrong, then our conclusions could be wrong as well.
These aren’t official results. They’re just estimates. If our polling is wrong, then our conclusions could be wrong as well.

Plus, NYT enodrsed Hillary.

only Democrats would believe it

[StatesPoll]

Trump is not going to do as well with white voters as Romney did. Romney won North Carolina whites by a whopping 68 TO 32. There hasn't been a single poll showing Trump winning a similar margin of them.

Oct. 28-31 SurveyUSA 659 LV (North Carolina)
http://www.wral.com/asset/news/state/nccapitol/2016/11/01/16183925/261876-WRAL_News_poll_Nov._1_2016_.pdf
Overall: TRUMP 44% | Hillary 37%
Already voted: TRUMP 46% | Hillary 52%
gonna vote later or in Nov,8 : TRUMP 54% | Hillary 38%
White: TRUMP 62% | Hillary 33%.  TRUMP +29%
Black: TRUMP 14% | Hillary 84%.  Hillary +70% (in 2012, Romney 4% | Obama 96%. Obama +92%)

1) yes. among white voters, 6% less margins than Romney.
2) But unfortunately(?) TRUMP is doing much better than Romney of Minorities.
Margins of Black voters: 92%(2012) ---> 70%(2016) freefall
3) Black voter turnouts decreased by 20~23%ish means, DEM gonna lose 3~4% voters of Total in NC

And don't fotget. This SurveyUSA NC Poll was conducted with Dem +11% samples.

[StatesPoll]

You cherrypick that ridiculous SUSA poll and can't even support your conclusion. Incredible!

your logic

NYT NC Poll & estimates = Holy golden standard
SurveyUSA NC Poll= Ridiculous Poll

funny

[StatesPoll]

Quinnipiac early voting poll

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Quinnipiac NC Poll (10/27-11/1)
https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/ps/snc11022016_demos_Sbyf37m.pdf/
Total 602 LV samples.  Early voters 44%.
602 LV X 44% = 264.88 LV (Already voted)

265 LV = very massive samples to figure out 2 Million votes(already voted in NC)

[StatesPoll]

if the polls are worth anything, the urban cities of WI are delivering ......

thanks EV,.....MI/PA are much more questionable.

Agreed, i don't see trump winning WI at all. He has a much much better chance of grabbing one of MI and PA.

The moment Ryan cancelled his appearance with Trump in WI he officially lost the state IMO.

If WI didn't flip with Ryan on the ticket as VP it isn't flipping this year either, I feel very confident that state will be blue and clinton will win it by ATLEAST 4 points, probably closer to 5 or 6.

what about YouGov Elecion Model?
11/3/2016
Wisconsin: Hillary 46.9% | TRUMP 45.0% | Johnson 3.3% | Stein 2.6%
https://today.yougov.com/us-election/?state=Wisconsin