Quinnipiac CO Clinton +2 GA Trump +7 IA Trump +6 VA Clinton +6 (user search)
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  Quinnipiac CO Clinton +2 GA Trump +7 IA Trump +6 VA Clinton +6 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Quinnipiac CO Clinton +2 GA Trump +7 IA Trump +6 VA Clinton +6  (Read 5724 times)
StatesPoll
Jr. Member
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Posts: 441
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« on: September 22, 2016, 02:06:59 PM »

Colorado:
Clinton:44
Trump:42
Johnson:10

Georgia:
Trump:47
Clinton:40
Johnson:9

Iowa:
Trump:44
Clinton:37
Johnson:10

Virginia:
Trump:39
Clinton:45
Johnson:8

Very nice!  #BattleGroundColoradoAgain



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StatesPoll
Jr. Member
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Posts: 441
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« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2016, 07:47:38 PM »
« Edited: September 22, 2016, 09:31:35 PM by StatesPoll »

Colorado only 9% Hispanic in the Q poll which understates Clinton's real position there by about 4 points...



At this Time Q-poll(Colorado). White 82% | non-white 18%

Adjusted by 2012 Exit Poll Ratios (White 78% | non-white 22%)

Hillary: White ( 78% ) x 40% + non-white (22%) x 62% = 44.84%
TRUMP: White ( 78% ) x 46% + non-white (22%) x 24% = 41.16%

Hillary +3.68%
It doesn't change that much as red avatars thought.
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StatesPoll
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Posts: 441
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« Reply #2 on: September 22, 2016, 07:51:48 PM »
« Edited: September 22, 2016, 09:31:52 PM by StatesPoll »

VA, IA, and GA are believable.

But GTFO Quinnipiac when it comes to CO. HRC is likely up at least 5 up there.

at this time Q-Poll, VA,GA = lean-Hillary skewed samples.

Virginia(Q-poll): Undersampled White voters: 65% <-> Exit Poll 2012  70%
https://www.qu.edu/images/polling/ps/sva09222016_demos_Sp72mk.pdf
Adjust the Poll as 2012 ratios
1) Hillary: White(70%)x32% + Non-White(30%)x70%= 43.4%
2) TRUMP: White(70%)x51% + Non-White(30%)x15%=40.2%

Georgia(Q-Poll): Undersampled White voters: 57%(!) <-> 2012  65%
https://www.qu.edu/images/polling/ps/sga09222016_demos_Sp72mk.pdf
Adjust the Poll as 2012 ratios
1) TRUMP: White(65%)x72% + Non-White(35%)x14%= 51.7%
2) Hillary: White(65%)x16% + Non-White(35%)x73%= 35.95%
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