1. Party Affiliation Statistics in NJ. April,30,2016
http://www.njelections.org/2016-results/2016-05-voter-registration-by-congressional-district.pdf
Total : 5.50 Mil
DEM: 1.77 Mil / 5.50 Mil = 32.2% | REP: 1.077 Mil / 5.50 Mil = 19.5%
Indpendent: 2.65 Mil / 5.50 Mil = 48.2%
2. Fairleigh Dickinson 5/18-5/22 Results
http://view2.fdu.edu/publicmind/2016/160525/(The Point is TRUMP beat Hillary of Independents in NJ)
DEM: Hillary 80% | TRUMP 7% | REP: TRUMP 74% | Hillary 10%
Ind: TRUMP 47% | Hillary 35%
3. Convert the Poll as Realistic Demographics
1) TRUMP
32.2%(DEM) X 7% + 19.5%(REP) X 74% + Ind(48.2%) x 47% = 39.33%
2) Hillary
32.2%(DEM) X 80% + 19.5%(REP) X 10% + Ind(48.2%) x 35% = 44.58%
just 5% gaps. Which is fightable(if he fully unifies the GOP, induce increase turnouts of Independents. plus trying to get 10%+ish of Democrats in NJ)