May 22, Finally TRUMP is ahead vs Hillary by RCP Average(first time) (user search)
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  May 22, Finally TRUMP is ahead vs Hillary by RCP Average(first time) (search mode)
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Author Topic: May 22, Finally TRUMP is ahead vs Hillary by RCP Average(first time)  (Read 2380 times)
StatesPoll
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« on: May 22, 2016, 09:52:59 AM »

It is a first time. He was always behind vs Hillary by RCP Average

Closest Moment was before (RCP Average: TRUMP vs Hillary National Poll)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Sept,14th,2015 Hillary 45.2 | TRUMP 44.0   Spread: Hillary +1.2%

December,5th,2015 Hillary 45.5 | TRUMP 44.3  Spread: Hillary +1.2%

January,15th, 2016 Hillary 44,3 | TRUMP 42.5 Spread: Hillary +1.8%


And Now, 5/22/2016 TRUMP 43.4 | Hillary 43.2 Spread: TRUMP +0.2%

Well +0.2% is statistically tied. But it is still meaningful,

TRUMP is 1st time ahead vs Hillary by RCP(Real Clear Politics) Average.

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StatesPoll
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Posts: 441
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« Reply #1 on: May 22, 2016, 10:06:44 AM »

And it won't be the last time either. Well it might actually depending on how the primary ends.

I searched of Romney vs Obama (RCP average,2012)

Romney was ahead 3 times in
October,9th,2012 (Romney 48.0 Obama 47.3)
October,19th,2012 (Romney 47.1 Obama 47.0)
November,1st,2012 (Romney 47.4 Obama 47.3)

Tied 4times
September,3rd Romney 46.3 Obama 46.3
September,5th Romney 46.8 Obama 46.8
September,5th Romney 46.7 Obama 46.7
October,31th Romney 47.4 Obama 47.4

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html#polls
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StatesPoll
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Posts: 441
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« Reply #2 on: May 22, 2016, 01:43:52 PM »

If the NBJ/WSJ poll is added today, it should make it appear as if this never happened.

I'm sorry but it included NBC/WSJ Poll.
you can see
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl   5/15 - 5/19   1000 RV   3.1   43        46        Clinton +3

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Poll                             Date        Sample   MoE   
                                                                       Trump (R)  Clinton (D)   Spread
RCP Average           5/13 - 5/19                           43.4          43.2        Trump +0.2
ABC News/Wash Post   5/16 - 5/19   829 RV   3.5   46          44        Trump +2
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl   5/15 - 5/19   1000 RV   3.1   43          46        Clinton +3
Rasmussen Reports   5/17 - 5/18   1000 LV   3.0   42          37        Trump +5
FOX News                   5/14 - 5/17   1021 RV   3.0   45          42        Trump +3
CBS News/NY Times   5/13 - 5/17   1109 RV   3.0   41          47        Clinton +6

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