StatesPoll
Jr. Member
Posts: 441
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« on: December 31, 2015, 02:40:35 PM » |
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Normally, California is considered as an obvious ‘Blue state’. And the image like almost 0% chance for the GOP. But it’s not the true. I’d estimate there is around 20~30% winning possibilities, if TRUMP becomes nominated by GOP. I gonna to explain why. Keep read.
1. Let’s take the look of Demographic in California.
Latinos in the 2012 Election: California
Population numbers of the races in 2016 would be like below.
WHITE 38% HISPANIC 39% ASIAN 15% BLACK 6.5% INDIAN 1.5%
1) Eligible Voters in California, by Race, 2010
Reference: Latinos in the 2012 Election: California
TOTAL 23 Millions Eligible Voters in California.
White 52%(=11.94millions/ 23milions) Hispanic 25.6%(=5.9 million / 23 millions)
Asian 12.2%(=2.82millions / 23millions) Black 7%(=1.6 million / 23 millions)
Native American 2% Else(mixed,etc) 1%
2) Thinking about actual voting rates it was something likes that in 2012
WHITE 58% Hispanic 21% Asian 10% Black 8%(was higher than usual with Black candidate obama effect) Native American 2% Else 1%
During 4 years, May be Hisapanics gained more numbers. But I’d predict Voting Rate of White going to be rise in 2016 with Terrorism& Immigration Issue. So I guess if TRUMP becomes nomniated of GOP race.Actual White influences it could be even more than 2012, for almost sure.
3) I guess at 2012, many white voters didn’t go to the vote with below reasons,
1) Romney was a mormon
2) Romney wasn’t very conservative candidate. kind of moderate. (Which was not very attractive for conservatives)
3) Conservative people gave up to vote with saying “oh… here is an obvious blue state. It’s useless to vote”
In my opinion, Only TRUMP is available to make this mircale of the GOP candidates.He can attract people. Look his last rallies, It’s like rock star’s concert. Always alot of people chasing him with enthusiasm. (several thousands~12k+ PPL)
Other candidates of GOP which are makes just few hundreds attendants per rally, I don’t think they can raise White turn out much.
Anyway it would be Something Like(suppose TRUMP vs Hillary match),
White 60.5% Hispanic 21% Asian 10% Black 7% Native American 1.5%
2. So let’s put GOP’s average racial number %(end of 2015) of Whole US to california.(White 60%, Hispanic 30% Asian 50% Black 10% Native American 0.5%)
White(California) 60.5% x 60% = 36.3%
Hispanic(California) 21% x 30% = 6.3%
Asian(California) 10% x 50% = 5 %
Black(California) 7% x 10% = 0.7%
Native American(California) 1.5% x 50% = 1.25%
Total 49.55%. Which able to win number in Cali.
GOP needs 48.7%+ to Win.(Because in 2012 3rd candidates gathed 2.4%)
well little bit good news for GOP is, Asian voter’s tendacy is changed a lot compare to 2012.
In 2012, Romney made 23% of Asian, when Obama made 76%.
But, In 2014 mid term election, Asian voted for GOP 48%. and nowadays on the general election poll, it makes 5:5 when vs Hillary. So it’s little bit fightable for GOP in California.
3. For the TRUMP, to win California, There should be satisfying with two conditions
1. GOP needs 60% White Supports(similar as romney got 59% from the national whites) with High Turnout of White.
2. 50% Asian Supports.
Then GOP can win the California in 2016.
White(California) 58% x 62.5% = 36.25%
Hispanic(California) 20% x 30% = 6%
Asian(California) 10% x 50% = 5 %
Black(California) 11% x 10% = 1.15%
Native American(California) 1% x 50% = 0.5%
Total 48.9% Which number is able to win the California.
GOP made 53% white support in California(2012). They can raise it +7% more with higher turnout? I think it is quite attainable for TRUMP. he shouldn’t be give up.
Well, Donald TRUMP. if he becomes nominated.In my opinion for TRUMP, he should not abandon California with saying ‘bah~ it is blue state’.Because it would be worth to make some effort on California, something like make 1-2 weeks rally.
Look, it is low risk / Jack pot High returns gamble. If he capture california (which is 55 electoral votes) He can win 2016 election with 99.9% odds. even he lose california there is nothing much to lose.
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