Influence of Hispanic in 2016 Election is quite exaggerated.

[StatesPoll]

Well, Many media and people says ‘Vote of Hispanic gonna decide 2016 election.’

Well it could be a partially right. but it is too much exaggerated. because of these four main factors.

1. Registered Hispanic voters share in 2016 gonna be 12% of the USA.
(Hispanic population in USA, it is 17.4%(2015). But average age of hispanic is just 29 years old. so many young minor hispanics they dont have the vote in 2016.)

2. Hispanic turn out is quite low compare to White and Black. in 2012 election it was just 48%.
http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2013/05/09/record-hispanic-voter-turnout-in-2012-myth-census-numbers-show/

Compare to White turn out 64%(I'd predict it would be increase in 2016) and about 1,2 factors, Hispanic actual influence in whole USA.It is about 8.76% (=12% x 73%

3. More than half of the Hispanic are living in ‘Three non-swing states’
Hispanic population in USA, 55millions. and 28.6 millons Hispanics are live in California,Texas,New York. Califorinia and New york are typical blue states And Texas is a typical Red states. Those 3 states total populations are 84million.

so in other 47 states in USA. Hispanic population is 26.4 million / 236 million= 11.18%. and thinking about vote shares,turn out factors. actual hispanic vote infulence in 47 states in USA. it gonna be about just 7 percents.

and Not all hispanic votes for Democrat. there are about 30 percent Hispanic vote for GOP. so in 2016 election. Democrat gonna take 2.8% advantage to against GOP from the hispanic at 47 states in USA.

(70%-30%) x 7%(actual hispanic influence in 47 states) = 2.8%.

4. Especially, among of swing states even lower influence of Hispanic.

Florida? Those Hispanics are many of them from the Cuba. so They are not lean to Democrat like other states. That’s why Donald Trump has a leadto Hillary with 49.2%(TRUMP) vs 40.5%(Hillary).
Polls : Florida Atlantic University - College of Business
[url]]http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2013/05/09/record-hispanic-voter-turnout-in-2012-myth-census-numbers-show/

Compare to White turn out 64%(I'd predict it would be increase in 2016) and about 1,2 factors, Hispanic actual influence in whole USA.It is about 8.76% (=12% x 73%

3. More than half of the Hispanic are living in ‘Three non-swing states’
Hispanic population in USA, 55millions. and 28.6 millons Hispanics are live in California,Texas,New York. Califorinia and New york are typical blue states And Texas is a typical Red states. Those 3 states total populations are 84million.

so in other 47 states in USA. Hispanic population is 26.4 million / 236 million= 11.18%. and thinking about vote shares,turn out factors. actual hispanic vote infulence in 47 states in USA. it gonna be about just 7 percents.

and Not all hispanic votes for Democrat. there are about 30 percent Hispanic vote for GOP. so in 2016 election. Democrat gonna take 2.8% advantage to against GOP from the hispanic at 47 states in USA.

(70%-30%) x 7%(actual hispanic influence in 47 states) = 2.8%.

4. Especially, among of swing states even lower influence of Hispanic.

Florida? Those Hispanics are many of them from the Cuba. so They are not lean to Democrat like other states. That’s why Donald Trump has a leadto Hillary with 49.2%(TRUMP) vs 40.5%(Hillary).
Polls : Florida Atlantic University - College of Business
http://http://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepi-polls/index.aspx#.Vn_Jq1kzz1L

Colorado? Those Hispanics have 20% populations. and have 14% actual influence.(turnout,age,registered voter factos)But instead of that only 4.5% Black living in there.(which vote for democrat 90%+). That’s why Trump has a lead to hillary with 48%(TRUMP)vs 37%(Hillary).

http://http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/co/co11182015_c23tbvm.pdf

Nevada and New mexico.which are just total 11 electoral votes (Nevada 6 + New mexico 5)

Else, Hispanic just has a 5% or lower influence(3~4%) on the Most swing states. (North Carolina: 9% Population, Actual vote shares influence about 5%.) with 3~5% influence Democrat party only can takes 1.2~2% advantage against to GOP.(recently on the polls Hispanic supporting ratio about Democrat/GOP is around 70 : 30 )

1.2~2% edge isn’t a nothing. But 1.2~2% edges(from the Hispanic) That decide the US presidential election? Are you serious? It is horrirbly exaggerated.

Influence of Hispanic in 2016 Election is quite exaggerated.

[StatesPoll]

Well there's a reason that Romney lost to Obama in Florida in 2012, and it wasn't the white vote

Romney needed 72% of the hispanic vote to get to 270

No he did not need. if He just made more white voters turnout.
He could takes Florida,Pannsylvania,Michigan,Ohio.

[StatesPoll]

The black movement is gonna matter in Philly and she is gonna take Castro for CO & NV. As for Iowa, she needs college students turnout. That gives you 270/272 for WH.

College students hate her. So do Iowa natives.
She is a racist, so she won’t pick Castro. Colorado hates her. Nevada doesn’t like her.

But the most devastating thing for her is going to be the black turnout drop and the black percentage drop. I can see Trump campaigning only in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

yes. I'd predict black turn out gonna drop to 60%(as 2004) from 66%(2012).
because there is no black candidates in democrat in 2016.

[StatesPoll]

I really don't think the AA vote will drop by much. Clinton is very popular/loved by African Americans.

I also think female turnout will increase quite a bit due to the historic nature of having the first female president.

I know Bill clinton is loved by AA. But Hillary? I don't think so that much.