Crossing the 50 percent barrier.

[Mallow]

Out of curiosity, what were Obama's national polling numbers at this time? And are you talking polling average, or a specific poll?

[Mallow]

Out of curiosity, what were Obama's national polling numbers at this time? And are you talking polling average, or a specific poll?

realclearpolitics has Obama at 46.2 on the 30th of March 2008 having broken 40 on the 3rd of Feb.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

Thanks! I think the OP meant the general election, though?

[Mallow]

Polling average per RCP. Romney is the only republican nominee not to get 50+ percent in the national average by April 1st. Trump will join him as the second.

We already know that Trump is a weak nominee, but so far he seems to be stronger than Romney.

Are you talking general election, or primaries?

[Mallow]

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Mallow - 50 percent in the primaries seems to be a significant number. I'm asserting that 50 percent in a national primary poll means that you will be the nominee.

The length of time in which the nominee takes to get to that seems to be an indicator of strength in a national election.

Ah, so we're just talking primary. Sounds reasonable.