Louisiana, West Virginia, Kansas and Mississippi as likely Republican but NH as safe Democratic? What the hell? Even Justice vs. Capito would be likely R at best for Dems, and I don't see anyone on the Democratic bench who can flip the other three states. Roberts looks likely to retire, and JBE is running for reelection in 2019, so that implies that a Senate race is a no-go.
I only use the "Safe" category if I think there is zero chance of this seat flipping. I could definitely see all the "Likely" and "Lean" states becoming competitive, and if anyone can lose in these "red" states like LA, it's the Republican Party. Plus, I believe 2020 will be a (much?) better year for Ds in the Senate than 2018, and they will probably put up top-tier candidates in all of these states and try to expand the map.
Is NH Safe Dem because of Shaheen or because the NH GOP has no capable Senate Candidates?
If you haven't gotten the memo yet, it's because he thinks Republicans can't win New Hampshire under any circumstances, and that the Republican party should just cede the entire state to the Democrats.
I'd like to hear his rationale for this.
He has this theory about how "angry NH women" are running the state, and how it'll never vote Republican again. I believe it started as a coping method for Scott Brown's loss in 2014.
