Nugget from 538: 99.6% Chance the Map Will be Different than 2012

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This means almost nothing; even if the map is same, they can just say "we're in the 0.4%".

Exactly. This is just like how people tried to defend their Michigan prediction by saying "They said >99% Clinton, not 100 percent!"

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This means almost nothing; even if the map is same, they can just say "we're in the 0.4%".

Exactly. This is just like how people tried to defend their Michigan prediction by saying "They said >99% Clinton, not 100 percent!"

I'm not saying it's unreasonable to suggest they underestimated the import of "unknown unknowns"...but you seem to be mocking the idea that something of 1% probability would ever happen?  Or what?

I'm not mocking that idea. I'm talking about the people who tried to defend 538 by claiming that we were in the <1 percent, despite the fact that all of 538's predictions would be correct by that logic.