CNN/WMUR-NH-BERNIE 60%, HILLARY 33% (user search)
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  CNN/WMUR-NH-BERNIE 60%, HILLARY 33% (search mode)
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Author Topic: CNN/WMUR-NH-BERNIE 60%, HILLARY 33%  (Read 4776 times)
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cxs018
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,282


« on: January 19, 2016, 05:10:45 PM »

This poll is going right in the traaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaysh.
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cxs018
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,282


« Reply #1 on: January 19, 2016, 05:14:25 PM »

I mean, I certainly hope Hillary loses that badly, but it's not happening. Can't wait to see r/sandersforpresident's reactions.
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cxs018
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,282


« Reply #2 on: January 19, 2016, 05:31:08 PM »

18-34:
Sanders: 81
Clinton: 17

35-49:
Sanders: 60
Clinton 36

50-64:
Sanders: 50
Clinton: 41

65+:
Sanders: 44
Clinton: 42

I'm guessing Sanders' hearing loss attracted the key 65+ demographic.
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cxs018
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,282


« Reply #3 on: January 19, 2016, 06:18:53 PM »

Dean was leading Kerry by about this margin at about this time in 2003/04. Obama was leading by 10% the night before. We'll see what happens.

Dean was leading everywhere, though, and the party panicked.  Kerry was in the single digits in Iowa if I recall.  Very unprecedented, and tragic what the party did to Dean so they could nominate that boring, old suit.  Once Kerry won Iowa, it was pretty easy for NH to just go with a known guy.

EDIT: And how can I forget the media's coverage of CRAZY DEAN'S SCREAM!  The early to mid 2000s might have been the all-time peak of cable news directing public opinion.    

I agree. Dean deserved better from his party, that he later went on to effectively save. It says a lot that I still see Dean bumper stickers today.
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cxs018
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,282


« Reply #4 on: January 20, 2016, 10:37:07 AM »

In this poll :
Sanders is between 55.3 and 64.7
Clinton is between 28.4 and 37.6

The current HuffPo average, including this poll, gives Bernie 54.5 and Clinton 38.1.

So this poll is not actually that much outside the range of possibilities. It could indicate either a gain for Sanders, probably not really that much of a gain, or it is an outlier.

If you imagine a reality where Sanders has gotten to a 56-37 lead in NH, this poll would cover this reality in its MoE.

And I still think that the more Sanders will appear as a viable option, the more men, and incidentally women, will break up for him as a "statu quo" male dominant option.

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cxs018
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,282


« Reply #5 on: January 21, 2016, 07:02:26 AM »

I will laugh if O'Malley somehow surges and wins New Hampshire in a surprise win

I remember some Sandernista predicting that O'Malley would get second place in IA.
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